KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-07-07
$23.39-0.19%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.39. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 KEY trades at 1.3× p/b, in line with its 1.2× p/b peer median, and our $22 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $24–$27. Note: our $22 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($24–$27). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $28 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $25.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $10.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $25.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $22.30 | 1.2 | 18.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$24.00 – $27.00 (median $25.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $24.62 |
| 12.4 |
| 1.99 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $19.29 | 12.0 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $20.92 | 3.0 | 7.03 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $31.35 | 19.5 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $17.99 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $22.37 | 13.9 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $19.71 | 12.0 | 1.65 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $31.12 | 1.2 | 25.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $12.78 | 12.4 | 1.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $38.86 | 1.2 | 31.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $8.26 | 12.4 | 0.67 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |