KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.55+1.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KEY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers
KEY — CIO transition
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief Information Officer — Amy G. Brady: Ms. Brady resigned due to personal health considerations.
Why it matters: These fees rose 27% from Q2 to Q3 and helped lift revenue. A further increase would extend that gain.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 investment banking and debt placement fees exceed Q3's $214 million.
Worry ifQ4 2026 fees fall below $214 million, reversing the Q3 increase.
Why it matters: These loans grew 3.7% from Q2 to Q3 and supported higher income. Another rise would show growth is continuing.
Supportive ifAverage commercial and industrial loans in Q4 are more than 3% above Q3's $64.4 billion.
Worry ifAverage commercial and industrial loans in Q4 are flat or lower than Q3's $64.4 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue rose 8% year over year, while costs rose 5.8%. Faster cost growth would narrow that gap.
Worry ifIn Q4, expenses grew faster than revenue year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 year-over-year revenue growth stays above expense growth.
Why it matters: Q2 charge-offs were 42 basis points, then credit measures improved in Q3. A rise above the Q2 level would reverse that progress.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net charge-offs are above 42 basis points.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 net charge-offs are 42 basis points or lower, and nonperforming assets do not rise from Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $220 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,775 loss on $10,000 · 17.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 2.95% in Q3 as deposit costs fell. A further rise would show this source of growth is still helping.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net interest margin is above 2.95%, with net interest income higher than Q3's $1.30 billion.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net interest margin is below 2.95%, or net interest income falls below Q3's $1.30 billion.