KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.18+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KEY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
KEY — CIO transition
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief Information Officer — Amy G. Brady: Ms. Brady resigned due to personal health considerations.
Why it matters: A big drop in investment banking fees may show weak market conditions. This could hurt overall revenue.
Worry ifInvestment banking fees decline more than 10% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifInvestment banking fees remain stable or grow in Q3.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share and signal confidence in financial health. Monitoring progress is key.
Supportive ifKeyCorp reports $1 billion of shares repurchased by Q4 2026.
Worry ifKeyCorp reports less than $500 million of shares repurchased by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If net interest income growth slows, it may be harder to make money.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth is under 2% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest income growth is over 2% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Getting this benefit would help management grow and make more money.
Supportive ifNet interest income was reported at $1 billion by Q1 2025.
Worry ifNet interest income was reported below $1 billion by Q1 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $221 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,775 loss on $10,000 · 17.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Fewer repurchases may show less confidence in how to use capital and grow.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $300 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases total $300 million or more in Q3.
Why it matters: Loan growth rates show demand and the economy's health. Changes can affect revenue and profits.
Watch forConsumer loans grow by more than 5% year-over-year in Q4 2023.
Also watch forCommercial loans decline by more than 3% year-over-year in Q4 2023.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program may show that management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the $3 billion allowed in May 2026.
Worry ifThere were no updates about the share buyback program in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A lower CET1 ratio shows possible capital problems. It may also lead to regulatory pressure.
Worry ifCET1 ratio falls below 11%.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio remains above 11% or improves.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs mean worse credit quality and more risks.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 50 basis points in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 40 basis points in Q3.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, loan pricing power may weaken. Profitability could also drop.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 2.80% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 2.80%.
Why it matters: A drop in return on tangible common equity would challenge the goal of 15%+ by 2027.
Worry ifReturn on tangible common equity falls below 12% in Q3.
Less concerning ifReturn on tangible common equity stays above 12% in Q3.