Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.96-2.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.14 → 2.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KEY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return on tangible common equity exceeds 13% in Q1 2026 and moves toward 15% by 2027 | Profit on equity rose to 13%, moving toward a 15% goal. | Intact | ROTE fails to progress above 13% in 2026 or falls below 11% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KEY is a financial-sector business with a measured recovery and execution thesis, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. Its thesis is in a watch state: recent signals improved, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
KEY is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the overall pricing signal is described as justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but the evidence does not specify exactly what earnings assumptions the market has already built in.
Near term, revenue growth and two recent earnings beats support a better operating trend. Revenue reached $2.044 billion in 2026-Q3, up 8% year over year, and return on average tangible common equity reached 15.11%, above management’s stated threshold for the quarter. The multi-year test is whether KEY can sustain that return level through the end of 2027, while recent performance relative to peers and the history of a deep miss remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued organic revenue and earnings growth, and on sustaining returns above management’s 15% threshold. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; a shift by the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts is also flagged as a sector headwind. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KEY’s improving momentum and execution on growth offer support, but weak relative performance and the need to sustain stronger returns keep the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 5 supplied quarters. Return on average tangible common equity was 12.51% in 2025-Q3 and 15.11% in 2026-Q3, reaching above the stated 15% threshold in the latest quarter. That reported measure shows delivery against the stated milestone to date; the commitment is to sustain the level through the end of 2027.
Revenue grows at least 7.5 billion USD in 2026 | A primary condition in KeyCorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $7.5 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $2.052B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20262,052,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 7 supplied quarters. Revenue increased from $1.773 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.044 billion in 2026-Q3, and Q3 revenue was up 8% year-over-year. The revenue movement and reported growth are substantive delivery of the recurring growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Return capital via share repurchases of at least $389 million per quarter | The bank returns capital by buying back $389 million in shares. | Intact | Quarterly share repurchases fall below $300 million consistently | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 supplied quarters. Key repurchased $389 million of common shares in 2026-Q1, $341 million in 2026-Q2, and $320 million in 2026-Q3. Repurchases continued across these quarters, demonstrating delivery of the capital-return commitment, though the quarterly amount declined over that span. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.15 → $2.18 · observed estimates
$8.60B → $8.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.15 | $8,602,009,392 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.15 | $8,602,009,392 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.15 | $8,597,820,250 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.15 | $8,614,333,943 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.15 | $8,614,333,943 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.15 | $8,614,652,543 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.15 | $8,616,196,312 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.14 | $8,619,149,646 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.15 | $8,625,207,328 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.15 | $8,630,873,994 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.15 | $8,638,499,659 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.16 | $8,642,637,181 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.16 | $8,642,637,181 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.16 | $8,642,637,181 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.16 | $8,642,637,181 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.16 | $8,642,637,181 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.17 | $8,670,428,604 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.17 | $8,687,192,712 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.17 | $8,681,829,274 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.18 | $8,683,559,683 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.18 | $8,683,559,683 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.18 | $8,683,559,683 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.18 | $8,683,559,683 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.18 | $8,683,122,183 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.18 | $8,683,122,183 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.18 | $8,683,122,183 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.18 | $8,688,595,964 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.18 | $8,688,595,964 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.18 | $8,688,595,964 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.18 | $8,693,967,348 | 15 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.18 | $8,693,967,348 | 15 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.