Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.26-11.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.00 → 2.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $820-$860 million in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $820-$860 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $820 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 Full-Year 2026 Guidance Kodiak is providing revised guidance for the full year 2026.” “The full year 2026 guidance below incorporates three quarters of the financial impact of the DPS acquisition given the April 1, 2026 closing date.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KGS is a growth-oriented energy business with a sector tailwind, rather than a low-risk or deep-value case. Its multi-year view is intact, though management has been volatile and the evidence snapshot gives only medium confidence.
KGS is expensive versus peers, with a 1.17 premium, while the expectations gap is close to aligned. The evidence suggests the valuation is justified rather than fragile, but model confidence is low and the valuation still leaves limited room for execution problems.
Over the multi-year view, capacity expansion and a higher 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook support growth; management has announced and completed additions, though the capacity priority is rated mixed. Near term, results have been strong overall but uneven, with an earnings miss in August after a May beat, and the industry has a high miss rate. Guidance is a key credibility risk if management reverses its recent increases.
The thesis depends on continued capacity growth and delivery against the raised 2026 guidance. Strong results and higher guidance from sector leaders SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance could weaken it. A KGS guidance cut after recent increases would add a credibility concern.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KGS’s growth case remains intact, but elevated execution risk and an expensive valuation make guidance delivery and sector conditions central to the multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.49 per share | The company pays a steady dividend of $0.49 per share. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.49 per share | Dividend per share: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.49 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This Common Stock Dividend will be paid on August 27, 2026 to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 17, 2026.” “In 2025, we returned over $263 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and achieved our leverage target of 3.5x at year‑end.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expand power generation capacity by 300-500 MW annually | Kodiak grows power capacity by 300-500 MW yearly through 2030. | Intact | annual power capacity growth falls below 260 MW | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Kodiak also announced that it has procured over 260 megawatts (MWs) of additional power generation capacity and expects annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs per year through 2030.” “Given the overwhelming demand, we are actively working to scale our power offerings, including today's announcement of equipment orders that will significantly increase our power generation capacity to over 650 megawatts, and clear line of sight to (1) Adjusted gross margin percentage, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA, and discretionary cash flow are non-GAAP financial measures.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 22% annually | A supporting condition in Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 21.9% YoY. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 21.9% YoY | Revenue growth: 21.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 21.9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202621.14867 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Kodiak also announced that it has procured over 260 megawatts (MWs) of additional power generation capacity and expects annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs per year through 2030.” “Given the overwhelming demand, we are actively working to scale our power offerings, including today's announcement of equipment orders that will significantly increase our power generation capacity to over 650 megawatts, and clear line of sight to (1) Adjusted gross margin percentage, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA, and discretionary cash flow are non-GAAP financial measures.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.98 → $2.71 · observed estimates
$1.75B → $1.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.98 | $1,753,055,150 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.94 | $1,770,021,554 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.98 | $1,753,055,150 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.94 | $1,770,021,554 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.94 | $1,770,021,554 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.08 | $1,753,300,550 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.94 | $1,768,942,973 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.00 | $1,774,659,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.00 | $1,774,659,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.02 | $1,769,094,038 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.05 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.05 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.05 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.05 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.05 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.04 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.00 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.00 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.00 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.00 | $1,770,324,807 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.00 | $1,768,401,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.00 | $1,768,401,730 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.92 | $1,750,958,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.92 | $1,750,958,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.84 | $1,748,650,795 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.84 | $1,748,650,795 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.83 | $1,747,070,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.83 | $1,747,070,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.83 | $1,746,748,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.83 | $1,746,748,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.83 | $1,746,748,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.81 | $1,741,400,333 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.81 | $1,741,400,333 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $1,739,246,487 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.78 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.71 | $1,735,825,902 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.