Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.59+1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KGS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing information on its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this
Why it matters: Growth in this segment shows the DPS acquisition is working and there is market demand.
Supportive ifPower Infrastructure revenue is more than $125 million for 2026.
Worry ifPower Infrastructure revenue is less than $95 million for 2026.
Why it matters: CPI data can change how people feel about the energy sector and Kodiak's costs.
Watch forCPI report shows inflation under 3%, which helps the energy sector.
Also watch forCPI report shows inflation over 4%, which raises costs in the energy sector.
Why it matters: If Kodiak exceeds this target, it shows strong growth in the power segment. This means the company is successfully growing its new business.
Supportive ifKodiak plans to add over 300 MWs in power generation capacity this year.
Worry ifIf power generation capacity growth is below 300 MWs, it shows slower growth.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows the company's market position and demand for its services.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQuarterly revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $407 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,789 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ongoing revenue growth in this segment shows high demand and good efficiency.
Supportive ifCompression Infrastructure revenue grows year over year by more than 7% in Q3.
Worry ifCompression Infrastructure revenue declines year over year or grows less than 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate would show Kodiak is improving its revenue growth strategy. It would also indicate the company is overcoming sector headwinds.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial health and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifKodiak declares a dividend of $0.49 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Updates on power generation will show Kodiak's progress in its new power business. This is important for future revenue.
Supportive ifThey announced extra power capacity of over 500 MWs by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo updates on power capacity growth or a cut in expected growth.
Why it matters: This growth shows that Kodiak is making more money. It is also managing costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $90 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders.
Watch forThe dividend is paid on time, showing stable cash flow and good capital use.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is late or lower, which may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Kodiak's revenue. Slowing sector growth could hurt Kodiak's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 8% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the DPS deal will increase Kodiak's power generation and customer base.
Supportive ifThe deal for Distributed Power Solutions will finish by April 2026. There will be no delays.
Worry ifThe deal may face big regulatory issues or be delayed past April 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show Kodiak's financial results after the DPS deal.
Watch forThe earnings report shows strong revenue growth from the DPS acquisition.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows no growth or a drop in revenue after the acquisition.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifThe board declares a dividend of $0.49 or higher for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or not maintained at $0.49, indicating cash flow concerns.