Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OrthoPediatrics Corp. (KIDS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.22-3.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KIDS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $25 million adjusted EBITDA in FY26 | The company targets $25 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative or below $15 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KIDS is a growth-focused, loss-making healthcare business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on track, but the risk label has risen from moderate to elevated.
The valuation evidence is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the model and no fragility flags. KIDS carries a 1.0 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not suggest unusually high expectations are built in.
Near-term results show progress: revenue rose from $59.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $72.7 million in 2026-Q3, and adjusted EBITDA increased from $2.2 million to $6.9 million. Management remains on track with product launches and its approximately $25 million adjusted EBITDA goal for 2026, but the full-year result is not yet known and earnings quality remains loss-making.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth, product launches, and progress toward the 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KIDS has evidence of operating progress and an intact thesis, but losses, elevated risk, and the unconfirmed full-year goal leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to reach breakeven free cash flow by year-end. |
| Improving |
| Free cash flow remains negative beyond FY26 |
Free cash flow: $1.595M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20261,595,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was driven primarily by growth in global Trauma and Deformity and OPSB products.” “The Company reiterated it expects annual set deployment to be approximately $10.0 million, expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $25.0 million, and expects to achieve breakeven free cash flow in 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue of $263M to $267M in FY26 | A primary condition in OrthoPediatrics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$265 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $233 million in FY26 | Revenue: $72.661M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$265 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202672,661,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.81 → $-0.79 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.81 | $296,689,933 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.68 | $296,523,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.74 | $297,096,330 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.81 | $296,723,267 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.78 | $298,812,330 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.81 | $298,816,778 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.81 | $298,816,744 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.81 | $298,817,033 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.82 | $298,813,733 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.82 | $298,809,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.82 | $298,824,844 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.82 | $298,820,111 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.77 | $299,297,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.76 | $301,354,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.79 | $304,465,250 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.