OrthoPediatrics Corp. (KIDS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.41-0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KIDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers
KIDS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-01
ENTRY INTO OR AMENDMENT OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On March 31, 2026, OrthoPediatrics Corp. (the “Company”) and its wholly owned domestic subsidiaries, as borrowers (collectively, the “Credit Parties”), entered into a First Amendment (the “Amendment”) to that certain Credit Agreement and Guaranty (the “Term Loan Agreement”) dated August 5, 2024, by and among the Credit Parties, any additional borrowers from time to time party thereto, any guarantors from time to time party thereto, o…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth over 10%. It also shows a way to make money.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses and revenue decline.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong business momentum and confidence in growth.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance raised to $265 million to $269 million for 2026.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or is lowered from the current range.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is making more money and working better.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $25 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $20 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it may help OrthoPediatrics. This could improve their market position.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,999 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 reaches or exceeds $7 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is below $5 million.
Why it matters: Another earnings beat would show strong performance and boost investor confidence. It can help improve the stock's outlook.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were better than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were worse than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Keeping high international growth helps meet revenue goals and expand in the market.
Supportive ifInternational revenue grew over 20% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifInternational revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth rate is key to achieving the full year revenue guidance of $263M to $267M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 11% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 11% YoY.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in this segment is key to overall revenue and market position.
Supportive ifTrauma & Deformity revenue grows year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifTrauma & Deformity revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Breakeven free cash flow means better financial health. It also shows long-term stability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow usage is $0 or better for the full year 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow usage exceeds $5 million for the full year 2026.