Knife River Corporation (KNF)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04

$57.25-8.02%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Knife River Corporation (KNF) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Knife River Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-17.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.29 → 2.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KNF yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital flexibility with manageable debt	A supporting condition in Knife River Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No further significant debt increases beyond $400 million loan raise.	Intact	Additional large debt raises or capital strain occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.73

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital flexibility with manageable debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves from negative $86 millionOperating income: $214.127M
Annual revenue near $3.4 billionRevenue: $1.276B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Knife River Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KNF is a growth-through-acquisitions and organic expansion story, with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven earnings compounder today. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue growth is strong, but the company is loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Knife River Corporation

Valuation is neutral by the evidence snapshot, with KNF at a 1.42 premium to peers and an expectations gap of 0.03. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between expectations and the business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term revenue growth has been supported by acquisitions and organic projects, but adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 14.9% in 2026-Q2 despite aggregate pricing improvement. Energy costs and project timing remain obstacles, and consecutive earnings misses make the next report a key risk; management execution is stable, but confidence has recently fallen to low.

What Knife River Corporation hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the central test is whether KNF can sustain growth while easing margin pressure and avoiding another guidance cut after its recent increase. Over the multi-year view, sector momentum also matters: continued strength among CRH, VMC, and MLM would support the Materials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, KNF has credible growth initiatives and a favorable sector backdrop, but margin pressure, earnings misses, and low confidence leave the thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-27	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-30	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.82	$3,600,830,266	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-03	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-04	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-05	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-06	$3.96	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-07	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.95	$3,642,968,010	4 / 9
2026-08-09	$3.95	$3,642,968,010	4 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.43	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.29	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.27	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.27	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.27	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.27	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.19	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.19	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.19	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.19	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.17	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.17	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.17	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.17	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-25	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-26	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-27	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-28	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-29	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-30	$3.11	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-31	$3.04	$3,556,215,294	4 / 6
2026-11-01	$3.04	$3,556,215,294	4 / 6
2026-11-02	$3.04	$3,556,215,294	4 / 6
2026-11-03	$2.96	$3,556,215,294	5 / 7
2026-11-04	$2.73	$3,525,054,182	5 / 6

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	6	2	1
2026-07-01	6	2	1
2026-08-01	6	3	1
2026-09-01	6	3	1
2026-10-01	7	3	1
2026-11-01	6	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge Knife River Corporation’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Knife River Corporation outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Knife River Corporation

What the fundamentals likely do

What Knife River Corporation hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line