Knife River Corporation (KNF)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.83-0.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KNF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KNF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Knife River can maintain growth momentum after a weak Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance remains within the previously stated range of $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance is lowered below $3.3 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on backlog execution will show how well the company is handling its projects. This is important for growth.
Watch forManagement says they are making good progress on the $1.2 billion backlog.
Also watch forManagement reports delays or problems with the backlog.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show plans for growth but could hurt cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending is above $101.4 million for growth projects.
Also watch forCapital spending is under $101.4 million. This shows careful spending.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could enhance growth and expand market presence.
Supportive ifA new acquisition that fits the growth plan has been announced.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$208 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $472 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,483 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong growth in contracting services shows high demand and good operations.
Supportive ifContracting services revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifContracting services revenue growth is below 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could enhance growth and market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new acquisition in 2026.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If Q2 revenue goes down, it shows ongoing problems with growth. This will affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue drops below $410.1 million, which was reported in Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is up compared to last year. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control and efficiency. These are important for making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is up by over 300 basis points from last year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is up by less than 200 basis points from last year.
Why it matters: News on capital allocation will show how Knife River plans to handle debt and growth.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan to cut gross debt significantly.
Also watch forNo clear plan is presented, and debt levels remain unchanged.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for Knife River's financial health. A positive change would show progress in cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income turns positive or gets better from -$86.2M in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls more or stays negative.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will show revenue, margins, and overall performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and adjusted EBITDA in line with or above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows big misses on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: New acquisitions show a plan for growth and market expansion.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one acquisition in Q3.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced in Q3.
Why it matters: News on capital allocation will show how Knife River is handling its investments and debts.
Watch forA new purchase or large investment is announced.
Also watch forThere is no news or bad news about spending money or managing debt.
Why it matters: Better margins let management cut costs and set prices.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 15% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 14% in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth shows weaker demand. This can make it hard for management to reach growth goals.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog show future revenue and how much the company can operate.
Watch forBacklog increases to over $1.3 billion.
Also watch forBacklog drops below $1.1 billion.