Knife River Corporation (KNF)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.25-8.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KNF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KNF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Why it matters: The company linked higher fuel costs and slow surcharge recovery to lower profit. Another large hit could weigh on margins.
Worry ifA company update puts the adjusted EBITDA impact from fuel costs at $24M or more in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifA company update puts the impact below $24M. It also reports that fuel surcharges or escalators are being collected.
Why it matters: The planned plant changes aim to lower costs and raise output. Completion and measured savings would test this growth plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports that the Texas upgrade is complete. Variable operating costs are down about 25%.
Worry ifThe upgrade misses its 2027 completion date or reported cost savings fall short of 25%.
Why it matters: The Nov. 3 results can show whether busy-season work helps meet the full-year profit range. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was down 1% year over year.
Watch forQ3 results keep full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance at $520M–$560M or raise it.
Also watch forQ3 results cut the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook below $520M.
Why it matters: The company said both Texas projects were moving slower than planned. Delays can push work and profit into later periods.
Watch forA company update says Highway 6 and 190 are back on schedule, with work advancing as planned.
Also watch forA company update says either project remains delayed or pushes more work into a later year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,894 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company said it secured a large semiconductor project for 2027. Plant expansion may help it serve that work.
Supportive ifA company update confirms the semiconductor project is still secured for 2027. It names work or shipments that are starting.
Worry ifA company update says the project was delayed, cut back, or canceled.
Why it matters: Lower-margin jobs and delays weighed on Q2 results. A margin near the stated range would show how the work is paying off.
Watch forThe September presentation says the second-half contracting margin range is 9%–10%. The margin meets or beats that range.
Also watch forReported contracting margin for the second half falls below 9%.