Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$396.80+1.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.70 → 21.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KNSL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash from operations at or above $248.9 million in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations was strong at $249M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $240 million in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $264.11M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=248.9 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 2026264,110,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a quality-focused insurance business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value situation. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong and management’s stated priorities on track.
KNSL trades at a notable premium to peers, which the evidence links to durable business quality. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting current expectations may be ahead of what the available evidence supports; confidence in that valuation assessment is low.
Near term, recent results show growth in nine-month underwriting income and operating earnings, and the company has continued repurchases and dividends. The third-quarter combined ratio edged higher year over year, while a prior deep earnings miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain risks despite a low current miss-risk reading.
The multi-year thesis depends on disciplined underwriting and continued earnings growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling rates could weigh on the Financials sector; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, KNSL’s operating evidence supports an intact long-term thesis, but its premium valuation makes execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends rose 47% from $0.17 to $0.25 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.20 in 2026-Q1 |
Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.25 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase net income to at least $138.6 million by 2025-Q4 | Kinsale grows net income from $109M to $139M by 2025-Q4. | Intact | net income falls below $138 million by 2025-Q4 | Net income: $98.129M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=138.6 million USD. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202698,129,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.69 → $21.87 · observed estimates
$2.00B → $1.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.69 | $1,997,052,150 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.69 | $1,997,052,150 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.69 | $1,997,052,150 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.61 | $1,981,272,380 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.58 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.58 | $1,983,296,010 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.58 | $1,983,296,010 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.65 | $1,982,110,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.67 | $1,654,452,025 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.71 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.70 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.70 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.70 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.70 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.67 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.69 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.69 | $1,656,604,100 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.68 | $1,656,604,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.68 | $1,656,604,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.68 | $1,656,604,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.72 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.68 | $1,650,054,100 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.82 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.85 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.85 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.85 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.90 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.90 | $1,627,709,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $21.87 | $1,614,634,000 | 8 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.