Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$373.17-2.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KNSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
KNSL — CIO transition
Dated 2026-04-29
Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer — Diane Schnupp: Diane Schnupp retired from her positions with the company.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show confidence in cash flow. They also show commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend per share increase beyond $0.25.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend per share from the current $0.25.
Why it matters: A drop in underwriting income may mean more claims or problems in operations.
Worry ifUnderwriting income falls below $90 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifUnderwriting income stays above $90 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Kinsale is making more money. This shows it is working better. This can create good chances for investment.
Supportive ifCash from operations grows more than 8% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations growth is less than 3% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in underwriting income show how well the company runs its insurance business. This affects profits.
Watch forUnderwriting income is more than $94.5 million reported in Q1 2026.
Also watch forUnderwriting income is less than $94.5 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $391 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,935 loss on $10,000 · 39.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect Kinsale's tech and analytics. This may change efficiency.
Worry ifThere are good updates on tech projects. Analytics are improving after the transition.
Less concerning ifThere is negative feedback on tech performance. Delays in analytics projects are also a concern.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net investment income may show problems in investment strategy.
Worry ifNet investment income growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet investment income growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More dividends show that management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share for Q2 2026 exceeds $0.25.
Worry ifDividend per share for Q2 2026 is $0.25 or lower.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may impact Kinsale's performance. This could signal broader challenges in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows Kinsale's ability to manage costs and grow profits. This supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow from operations helps growth and spending plans. This shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $250 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong cash flow and a focus on returning capital.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of more than $250 million.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a reduction in the program.
Why it matters: A big drop in gross written premiums may mean more competition. This can hurt growth.
Worry ifQ3 gross written premiums down more than 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifGross written premiums stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: More net investment income can help the company make more money and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifQ3 net investment income exceeds $55.7 million.
Worry ifNet investment income falls below $55.7 million.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio shows less efficient underwriting. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifCombined ratio exceeds 77.4% in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe combined ratio is 77.4% or lower.