Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kinetik Holdings, Inc. (KNTK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
$49.14-3.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.91 → 1.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KNTK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain 2026 Adjusted EBITDA near $1.05 billion | Kinetik plans $950M to $1,050M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $950 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented energy infrastructure business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to KNTK being cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial peer premium. The model suggests expectations are close to current fundamentals, so the expensive rating is not paired with a large expectations gap.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached a record, and management raised full-year guidance. Higher capital spending and progress on Kings Landing II and the ECCC Pipeline support growth, but execution remains mixed and a recent litigation filing adds uncertainty.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining stronger volumes and margins while delivering its projects and managing increased capital spending. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent increase would hurt credibility; continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers ENB, WMB, and KMI could also shape the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, KNTK’s operating momentum supports an intact long-term thesis, but valuation, project execution, litigation, and sector conditions remain important risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending stays near $510M. |
| Broken |
| Capital expenditures fall below $450 million or exceed $510 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $103.091M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million and <= $510 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026103,091,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance key projects and commercial agreements | A supporting condition in Kinetik Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Progress projects on schedule and extend contracts by end 2026. | Improving | Key projects delay beyond 2026 or contracts not extended | Qualitative: Projects advancing (2.2 Bcf/d Q4 target, $260M plant approved) vs 2026 schedule Kinetik targets 2.2 Bcf/d Q4 volumes and approved a $260M plant, reinforcing project progress despite a potential sale exploration. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.61 → $1.94 · observed estimates
$2.24B → $2.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.61 | $2,241,434,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.61 | $2,241,434,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.61 | $2,241,434,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.61 | $2,243,365,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.61 | $2,243,365,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.61 | $2,243,365,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.61 | $2,243,365,320 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.61 | $2,232,658,160 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.63 | $2,221,765,644 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.61 | $2,232,658,160 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.63 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.61 | $2,232,658,160 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.61 | $2,232,658,160 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.61 | $2,232,658,160 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.61 | $2,250,868,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $2,250,868,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.66 | $2,221,765,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.85 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.85 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.88 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.90 | $2,347,870,070 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.89 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.91 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $2,346,631,770 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.95 | $2,451,786,191 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.98 | $2,465,088,012 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.98 | $2,465,088,012 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.98 | $2,465,088,012 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.98 | $2,465,088,012 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.98 | $2,465,088,012 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.94 | $2,440,604,433 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.