Kinetik Holdings, Inc. (KNTK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.43+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KNTK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KNTK — director transition
Dated 2026-06-25
Director — Craig Harris: Appointment of Craig Harris as a new director.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would support a positive outlook for Kinetik Holdings. It may signal a shift in the energy sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: More updates could show strong customer demand. This may help Kinetik earn more money.
Supportive ifKinetik announces new updates to Durango gas gathering contracts. This extends terms or adds land.
Worry ifNo new updates or extensions to current contracts are announced.
Why it matters: Updates on Kings Landing II show Kinetik's plan to grow processing.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of big progress in Kings Landing II project.
Worry ifNo updates or delays reported on Kings Landing II project.
Why it matters: Keeping the EBITDA guidance shows Kinetik's ability to manage costs and grow. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifKinetik says it will meet its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in a report.
Worry ifKinetik says it will not meet its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in a report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $339 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,029 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this expansion will improve Kinetik's system connections. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifECCC Pipeline expansion is done and running.
Worry ifECCC Pipeline expansion is delayed or not finished as planned.
Why it matters: Big changes in prices could lower Kinetik's gas volumes and income.
Watch forWaha gas prices stabilize above $0 per Mmbtu for two consecutive months.
Also watch forWaha gas prices stay negative for two months in a row.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows Kinetik wants to grow and invest in infrastructure.
Supportive ifKinetik says capital spending will be about $560 million for 2026.
Worry ifKinetik says capital spending will be below $560 million.
Why it matters: Changes in volume will show how Kinetik handles Waha price issues.
Worry ifProcessed gas volumes rose by at least 3% from last year, despite Waha issues.
Less concerning ifProcessed gas volumes fell from last year. This shows worsening market conditions.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show Kinetik's financial health and how well it operates. This is key for future outlook.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong operational performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows worse results than expected. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Sticking to capital spending goals helps growth and operations.
Watch forCapital spending is reported at or near $560 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is reported much lower than $560 million.
Why it matters: New agreements may boost Kinetik's market position. This could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifNew commercial agreements were announced. They improve market access or customer base.
Worry ifNo new commercial agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completion of this project by year-end 2026 is key for future capacity and earnings.
Supportive ifThe Kings Landing project got final approvals. It is on track to start by year-end 2026.
Worry ifDelays in the Kings Landing project or failure to meet the year-end timeline.
Why it matters: This project will improve Kinetik's skills and income in the midstream sector.
Supportive ifKings Landing project got final approvals. It will start operations by December 2026.
Worry ifKings Landing project may face more delays. It might miss the start date.
Why it matters: If the energy sector improves, Kinetik could do better. This may show a recovery in energy.
Supportive ifSector performance improves to neutral or strong from the current headwind status.
Worry ifSector performance remains a headwind or worsens.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Kinetik can do well in a tough market. Meeting this target shows strength.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is set at $260 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $260 million.
Why it matters: New agreements can improve Kinetik's revenue and customer base. They are key to long-term growth.
Supportive ifKinetik shares new deals that improve market access.
Worry ifNo new commercial agreements are announced in the next quarter.