Knight-Swift (KNX)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.99+3.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
KNX — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
OTHER EVENTS On August 6, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (the "Company") announced that on August 5, 2026 its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable to the Company's stockholders of record as of September 4, 2026, and is expected to be paid on September 21, 2026.
Why it matters: The board's choice on the dividend shows trust in cash flow. A steady dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe board does not declare a dividend or reduces the amount below $0.20.
Why it matters: Kevin Knight's retirement marks a major leadership change. Investors will watch how this affects company culture and strategy.
Watch forEmployees and customers are happy with the leadership change.
Also watch forThere are bad reports about leadership issues or unhappy employees after the change.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost management. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 shows an increase from $28.58 million in Q1.
Worry ifIf operating income drops more or stays below $28.58 million.
Why it matters: The offering may change how Knight-Swift manages its money and options.
Watch forThe company finishes the offering and uses the money to pay down debt as planned.
Also watch forThe offering fails to attract investors or leads to a significant drop in stock price.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,907 loss on $10,000 · 19.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on the share buyback shows management's trust in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThere is news of completed share buybacks or a large part of the buyback done.
Worry ifNo progress or canceling the buyback plan may show cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: How the notes offering goes will impact Knight-Swift's money and options.
Supportive ifThe $1 billion offering is successful with good terms and strong investor interest.
Worry ifNot completing the offering or having bad terms may show weak demand.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This helps with long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in the truckload market affect Knight-Swift's revenue and profit margins.
Watch forTruckload market conditions are improving. Spot rates and contract prices are going up.
Also watch forTruckload market conditions are getting worse. Spot rates are falling and empty miles are rising.
Why it matters: This may show problems with managing costs and setting prices in a tough market.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 40% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth exceeds 40% year over year.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in demand and could impact margins. Investors monitor revenue growth closely.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth year over year is reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth year over year exceeds 10%.
Why it matters: Stable truckload revenue growth shows strong demand and good pricing power in the market.
Supportive ifTruckload revenue growth reported above 3% year over year.
Worry ifTruckload revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A clear announcement would show commitment to returning cash to shareholders. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifA formal announcement of the share buyback program with a set dollar amount.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the buyback program, even after earlier signs.
Why it matters: LTL revenue trends will show if the company can improve its freight mix and network. This impacts overall profits.
Supportive ifLTL revenue shows growth above 2% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLTL revenue falls more year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The buyback aims to improve shareholder value and may affect stock price. Investors will monitor its execution and effects on financials.
Supportive ifShare price increases by more than 10% following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifShare price declines or remains flat despite the buyback execution.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is handling costs and revenues.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings results are better than expected. They show more operating income.
Worry ifQ2 earnings do not meet expectations. This shows ongoing issues in operations.
Why it matters: Better truckload pricing and margins show strong demand. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifTruckload segment reports a revenue per loaded mile increase of more than 5% in Q3.
Worry ifTruckload segment reports a revenue per loaded mile decrease of more than 2% in Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues and if margins improve. Investors will look for signs of sustained performance.
Watch forQ3 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.