Karat Packaging, Inc. (KRT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04

$53.63+2.80%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Karat Packaging, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.25 → 2.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KRT yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share	The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.45 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.45 per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve gross margin of 34-36% in 2026	A primary condition in Karat Packaging, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 34-36% margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 33% in FY26	Gross margin: 56.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 34-36% margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202656.609588 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Gross margin for full-year 2026 expected to be in the low 40 percents, including IEEPA tariff refunds recorded during the first half of 2026.” “Gross margin was 56.6 percent in the 2026 second quarter, including contribution of 1,890 basis points from the IEEPA tariff refunds, compared with 39.6 percent in the prior-year quarter.” Gross profit was $77.160 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026
Increase net sales by low double-digits in 2026	Karat Packaging grows sales by low double-digits in 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20269.93338 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second Quarter 2026 Highlights • Record quarterly net sales of $136.3 million, up 9.9 percent, from $124.0 million in the prior-year quarter.” “• Net sales for full-year 2026 expected to increase by low double-digits from the prior year.” Revenue was $136.302 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.27

$2.43 → $2.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.57B

$0.57B → $0.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-28	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-29	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-02	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-04	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-07	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-08	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-13	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-14	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-15	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-16	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-17	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-18	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-19	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-20	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-21	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-22	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-23	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-24	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-25	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-26	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-27	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-28	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-29	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-30	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-31	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-01	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-02	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-03	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-04	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-05	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-06	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-07	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-08	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-09	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-10	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-11	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-12	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-13	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-14	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-15	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-16	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-17	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-18	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-19	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-20	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-21	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-22	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-23	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-24	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-25	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-26	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-27	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-28	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-29	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-30	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-01	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-02	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-03	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-04	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-05	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-06	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-07	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-08	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-09	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-10	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-11	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-12	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-13	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-14	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-15	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-16	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-17	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-18	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-19	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-20	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-21	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-22	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-23	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-24	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-25	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-26	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-27	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-28	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-29	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-30	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-31	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-01	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-02	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-03	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-04	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	2	1	1
2026-07-01	2	0	1
2026-08-01	2	0	1
2026-09-01	2	0	1
2026-10-01	2	0	1
2026-11-01	2	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per shareDividend per share: $0.45 per share
Achieve gross margin of 34-36% in 2026Gross margin: 56.61%
Increase net sales by low double-digits in 2026Revenue growth: 9.93%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Karat Packaging, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KRT is a growth-oriented business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution and earnings quality are rated neutral, and the evidence is medium confidence.

What's priced into Karat Packaging, Inc.

KRT is valued at a 1.43 premium versus peers, with a durable premium as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is 0.31, while the priced-in assessment flags an unjustified valuation and elevated fragility due to expensive valuation and weak execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, recent results are strong, with earnings beats in May and August and first-half net sales up 11.3% year over year. Management reiterated its low-double-digit sales growth guidance for 2026, but the growth priority is rated mixed; gross margin was lifted by tariff refunds, so underlying progress toward the full-year goal is less clear. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses remain concerns.

What Karat Packaging, Inc. hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if KRT cuts guidance on its next call. Over the multi-year view, delivery on sales growth and 34-36% gross margin excluding tariff refunds matters, alongside whether the valuation premium is supported by execution. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from TRS, MYE, and PACK could help, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, KRT’s thesis rests on sustaining recent growth and delivering on margin goals, while reducing the gap between its premium valuation and execution quality. The thesis remains intact, but guidance and peer results are important near-term checks. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.27

$2.43 → $2.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.57B

$0.57B → $0.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-28	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-07-29	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-02	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-04	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-07	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-08	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.43	$566,855,980	1 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-13	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-14	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-15	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-16	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-17	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-18	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-19	$2.23	$566,855,980	1 / 2
2026-08-20	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-21	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-22	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-23	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-24	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-25	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-26	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-27	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-28	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-29	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-30	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-08-31	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-01	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-02	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-03	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-04	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-05	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-06	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-07	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-08	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-09	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-10	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-11	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-12	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-13	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-14	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-15	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-16	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-17	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-18	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-19	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-20	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-21	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-22	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-23	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-24	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-25	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-26	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-27	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-28	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-29	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-09-30	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-01	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-02	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-03	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-04	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-05	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-06	$2.25	$568,281,534	1 / 2
2026-10-07	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-08	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-09	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-10	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-11	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-12	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-13	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-14	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-15	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-16	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-17	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-18	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-19	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-20	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-21	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-22	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-23	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-24	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-25	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-26	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-27	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-28	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-29	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-30	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-10-31	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-01	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-02	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-03	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2
2026-11-04	$2.27	$569,392,673	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings