Karat Packaging, Inc. (KRT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$51.44-4.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, Karat Packaging Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act…
Why it matters: The 47,000-square-foot site is meant to speed Southeast deliveries and support online orders. Opening on time would confirm progress on that plan.
Supportive ifKarat confirms the Orlando warehouse is open and serving orders by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifKarat reports the warehouse is not open by the end of Q3 2026, or gives a later opening date.
Why it matters: The Q2 refund added $25.8 million to adjusted EBITDA. Q3 guidance assumes little refund help, testing core earnings against higher costs.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 9%. That is below management's range of 9% to 11%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is 9% or higher. That is within or above management's range.
Why it matters: The board raised the dividend to $0.47 per share in August. Keeping it at or above that level would show the recent increase has held.
Supportive ifA board notice declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.47 per share.
Worry ifA board notice cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.47 per share or suspends it.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin included a large tariff refund. Q3 guidance includes little refund help, so the result tests margins without that boost.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 35%, beneath management's 35% to 37% range.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is 35% or higher, within or above management's range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $291 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,696 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Online sales grew 23.6% in Q2, and management cited online momentum as a growth driver. A sharp slowdown would weaken that signal.
Worry ifOnline sales growth is below 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifOnline sales grow at least 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.