Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Kohl's Corp. (KSS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.90-5.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.60 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KSS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital expenditures within $350M-$400M | A primary condition in Kohl's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $350M-$400M. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $400M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $62M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $350M-$400M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 202662,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a retailer recovery thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is intact this month, though confidence has fallen from high to medium and earnings quality is loss-making.
KSS is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence. The priced-in signal is labeled justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not support a firm conclusion about how much recovery the market assumes.
Near term, recent financial performance is neutral and within the top half of the industry, but sales were lower year over year in the first quarter and management expects 2026 sales to decrease 2% to flat. Management’s efforts to improve operations have shown limited sales progress, while the capital-spending commitment has little delivery evidence so far; the quarterly dividend has been maintained. Earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, and a litigation filing adds a recent concern.
Over the next year, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those retailers could remove that support. Over the multi-year view, the central test is whether operational efforts can improve comparable sales and financial performance.
For the 1-3 year view, KSS remains an uncertain recovery story with a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but loss-making results and mixed execution keep the thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial and Capital Allocation Outlook For the full year 2026, the Company continues to expect the following: • Net sales and Comparable sales: A decrease of (2%) to flat • Adjusted Operating margin: In the range of 2.8% to 3.4% (a) • Adjusted Diluted EPS: In the range of $1.00 to $1.60 (a) • Capital Expenditures: In the range of $350 million to $400 million • Dividend: On May 20, 2026, Kohl’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.125 per share.”
Maintain quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share | The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial and Capital Allocation Outlook For the full year 2026, the Company continues to expect the following: • Net sales and Comparable sales: A decrease of (2%) to flat • Adjusted Operating margin: In the range of 2.8% to 3.4% (a) • Adjusted Diluted EPS: In the range of $1.00 to $1.60 (a) • Capital Expenditures: In the range of $350 million to $400 million • Dividend: On May 20, 2026, Kohl’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.125 per share.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve EPS between $1.0 and $1.6 | The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $1.0 and $1.6. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 3.1% | A primary condition in Kohl's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.8% to 3.4%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 2.8% in FY26 | Operating margin: 7.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.8% to 3.4%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20267.42532 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.49 → $1.60 · observed estimates
$14.80B → $14.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.49 | $15,017,664,890 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.49 | $15,017,664,890 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.49 | $14,802,490,515 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $14,814,568,079 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.60 | $14,794,781,810 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.60 | $14,788,941,107 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.58 | $14,753,735,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.58 | $14,753,735,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.60 | $14,768,110,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.60 | $14,857,773,483 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.