Kohl's Corp. (KSS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.44+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KSS — officer change
Dated 2026-08-31
Chief Merchandising Officer — Nick Jones: The departure of the Chief Merchandising Officer is an orderly succession with a named external successor, Ryan M. Waymire, rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Elliott Rodgers' leadership may help the company. This could lead to better financial results.
Supportive ifLook for better numbers like lower SG&A costs or faster inventory turnover.
Worry ifA drop in key metrics with no signs of improvement.
Why it matters: A confirmed earnings beat would show Kohl's is managing costs well and growing profits.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows earnings per share above $0.50.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows earnings per share below $0.50.
Why it matters: A lower margin shows operational problems. This could hurt profit outlook.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 2.8% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted operating margin meets or exceeds 2.8% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and pricing power.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin is more than 3.4% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin is less than 2.8% in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$275 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $583 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,182 loss on $10,000 · 51.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying within the $350M-$400M range shows Kohl's is managing its investments wisely.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is between $350M and $400M.
Worry ifIf spending goes over $400M, it shows poor money management.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Kohl's is managing its investments wisely.
Watch forCapital spending is $350 million or more, but not over $400 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $350 million or above $400 million.
Why it matters: Elliott Rodgers' leadership could help the company do better. Good changes may show strong management.
Supportive ifLook for good operational numbers in the next earnings call after Elliott Rodgers starts.
Worry ifIf operational numbers keep dropping, it may show problems with the new COO's leadership.
Why it matters: Changes may show new plans from management or changes in financial health.
Watch forManagement cuts spending plans to less than $350 million.
Also watch forManagement increases spending plans to more than $400 million.
Why it matters: New board members could bring fresh perspectives and strategies. This may impact long-term governance and performance.
Supportive ifWatch for news about new board members or plans from the new leaders.
Worry ifNo new board changes or bad comments about the current board's work may be a concern.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders. Cutting it may worry investors.
Watch forThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share.
Also watch forThe Board announces a reduction or suspension of the dividend.
Why it matters: Earnings are important for investor trust. They show how well the company runs.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS exceeds $1.00.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS falls below $0.80.
Why it matters: A larger decline would show that Kohl's struggles with sales are worsening. This could raise concerns about the company's recovery efforts.
Worry ifQ2 comparable sales decline worse than -1.1%.
Less concerning ifQ2 comparable sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: More spending may show management's trouble with costs. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifSpending was over $400 million in 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending is between $350 million and $400 million.
Why it matters: This will show if the new sales strategy is working. The new Chief Merchandising Officer is in charge.
Supportive ifComparable sales increase year over year by more than 1%.
Worry ifComparable sales decrease year over year by more than 1%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.125 per share is paid on September 23, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend is stopped or cut.