Kohl's Corp. (KSS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.36+7.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
KSS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-29
of Form 8-K. Consequently, such information is not deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Further, the information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the registrant under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specif…
Why it matters: About $100 million of Q2 tariff refunds flowed through gross margin. A lower margin without that aid would show weaker underlying results.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 40.0%, versus 43.0% in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin stays at or above 43.0% without a similar tariff refund.
Why it matters: Kohl’s Q2 comparable sales fell 0.9%. Q3 results test whether sales keep improving.
Watch forOn November 24, Q3 comparable sales are above 0% year over year.
Also watch forOn November 24, Q3 comparable sales fall below -0.9% year over year.
Why it matters: The new merchandising chief is tasked with refreshing Kohl’s product offer. Sales and margin trends can show whether the change is working.
Watch forBy the next two earnings reports, comparable sales rise above 0% and gross margin stays at or above 43.0%.
Also watch forBy the next two earnings reports, comparable sales remain below 0% and gross margin falls below 43.0%.
Why it matters: Kohl’s put marketing and digital under one customer leader. Better digital sales would show progress in joining those teams.
Supportive ifA company report shows online sales growth above 0% year over year in a quarter.
Worry ifA company report shows online sales down year over year in two straight quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$222 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $577 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,182 loss on $10,000 · 51.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Kohl’s raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range to $1.80–$2.40. Q3 results test progress toward that range.
Watch forOn November 24, Kohl’s keeps its 2026 adjusted EPS range at $1.80–$2.40 or raises it.
Also watch forOn November 24, Kohl’s cuts the 2026 adjusted EPS range below $1.80.
Why it matters: The sector read says consumer discretionary revenue is shrinking. Kohl’s sales gains would stand out; more decline would match that pressure.
Watch forKohl’s Q3 net sales grow year over year while the sector read still says revenue is shrinking.
Also watch forKohl’s Q3 net sales fall at least 1.5% year over year while the sector read says revenue is shrinking.