Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.920.00%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KW — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-06-16
Changes in Control of Registrant. The information provided in the Introduction and Items 2.01 and 5.02 of this Current Report is incorporated herein by reference. The total amount of cash consideration payable to the Company’s equityholders at closing in connection with the Merger and pursuant to the Merger Agreement was approximately $1.6 billion , which was provided and/or arranged by affiliates of the Consortium through a combination of equity and $1.3 billion of debt financing, in respect…
Why it matters: The new notes carry rates of 7.000% and 7.250%. The refinancing plan tied their issuance to paying off older notes.
Watch forA filing confirms the $1.8 billion notes were issued. The 2029 and 2030 notes were redeemed, and the 2031 tender settled.
Also watch forA filing says the new notes did not close, the redemptions were delayed, or the 2031 tender ended without settlement.
Why it matters: The sector data points to slowing growth and margins near 3% lower year over year. A return toward past revenue growth highs would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifSector data show revenue growth moving back toward its prior highs from the current maturing phase.
Worry ifSector data continue to show slowing revenue growth, with no move back toward prior highs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$18 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $187 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,229 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.