Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.920.00%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KW — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-06-16
Changes in Control of Registrant. The information provided in the Introduction and Items 2.01 and 5.02 of this Current Report is incorporated herein by reference. The total amount of cash consideration payable to the Company’s equityholders at closing in connection with the Merger and pursuant to the Merger Agreement was approximately $1.6 billion , which was provided and/or arranged by affiliates of the Consortium through a combination of equity and $1.3 billion of debt financing, in respect…
Why it matters: Successful debt issuance is key for funding operations and helping the merger.
Supportive ifThe $1.8 billion debt issuance closes successfully with good terms.
Worry ifIf the debt issuance fails or is delayed, it will hurt liquidity.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is important for making money in the long run. It shows how well the company manages costs and makes revenue.
Supportive ifThe company has more operating income than before. This is better than past quarters.
Worry ifIf operating income goes down or stays the same, it shows ongoing cost management issues.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is important for future operations and financial health. It changes ownership and how money is spent.
Supportive ifThe merger is done. All cash payments to shareholders are completed.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is a key move for financing. Its effects on cash flow and financial health will be important.
Watch forLook for positive cash flow and better financial numbers in the next earnings report.
Also watch forCash flow remains negative or financial metrics worsen after the debt issuance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$18 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,729 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is essential for the merger to proceed. It reflects investor confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifThe merger gets stockholder approval at the special meeting set for mid-2026.
Worry ifThe merger does not get approval. This could cause financial problems and lower stock prices.
Why it matters: The merger will change who owns Kennedy-Wilson. This could affect future plans and actions.
Supportive ifThe merger is done. Kennedy-Wilson confirmed it in a press release.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is important for funding the merger and future projects. It affects cash flow and financial options.
Supportive ifThe full $1.8 billion in senior notes is successfully issued and funds are received.
Worry ifThe debt issuance is delayed or falls short of the planned amount.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders. Changes may hurt investor trust.
Supportive ifThe dividend per share remains at $0.12 for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend per share below $0.12.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing financially. They reflect changes in performance.
Watch forEarnings show higher operating income than in Q1.
Also watch forEarnings drop or do not improve in operating income.