Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
nLight, Inc. (LASR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.99-9.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.63 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LASR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $8M-$12M for Q2 2026 | The company targets $75M-$81M revenue and $8M-$12M adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8M in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the company is still loss-making. The multi-year view is on watch: management execution is stable and key operating priorities are on track, but recent performance has been mixed.
LASR is described as cheap versus peers, while the model’s expectations gap is negative and its confidence is low. The valuation signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not show exactly what growth or profitability the market assumes.
Near term, revenue has grown strongly year over year and gross margin has improved, while second-quarter adjusted EBITDA remained positive but was below the first-quarter level. Third-quarter guidance points to lower margins and adjusted EBITDA, so progress toward lasting profitability remains uncertain; guidance cuts are a stated risk, though the current miss-risk assessment is low.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth, keeping gross margins within management’s stated range, and moving adjusted EBITDA toward consistent profitability. Near-term results also depend on whether management maintains guidance, while rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LASR has evidence of growth and operating improvement, but losses, high risk, and weaker results than its industry cohort leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin is improving toward 29%-33%, with gross profit rising to $26.5M in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 29% in Q2 2026 |
Gross margin: 31.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29%-33% gross margin for Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 7, 202631.147462 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Management confidence and insider ownership | A supporting condition in nLight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No large insider stock sales signaling loss of confidence. | Under Pressure | Further large CEO or insider stock sales occur | CEO sold $6.29M + $1.89M + $1.9M in May-Jun 2026 News reports confirm CEO Scott Keeney sold $6.29M, $1.89M, and $1.9M in company stock between May 2 and June 7, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $75M-$81M for Q2 2026 | A primary condition in nLight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $75M revenue for Q2 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $75M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $82.591M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $75M revenue for Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 7, 202682,591,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.68 → $0.64 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.68 | $347,402,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.67 | $345,446,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.67 | $345,446,890 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.68 | $347,402,444 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.63 | $347,070,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.64 | $348,436,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.64 | $348,439,622 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.