nLight, Inc. (LASR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.06-3.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LASR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 72 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LASR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show worsening cost issues and hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin was below 24%. This shows big cost challenges.
Less concerning ifGross margin is above 30%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Falling below this level would signal deeper issues in supply chain or demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $63 million. This shows big supply chain problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue meets or exceeds $70 million, showing strong demand recovery.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems to make money, even with revenue growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $1 million. This confirms issues with managing costs.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $7 million. This shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA shows better cost management. This means the company is making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $7 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $1 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$384 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $756 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,363 loss on $10,000 · 53.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong A&D revenues support growth and validate the company's market position. It reflects demand in defense sectors.
Supportive ifA&D product revenues reported at $35 million or higher in Q2 2026.
Worry ifA&D product revenues reported below $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin shows good cost control and pricing power. This helps long-term profits.
Watch forGross margin reported at or above 30%.
Also watch forGross margin reported below 24%.
Why it matters: News about this contract may show growth in defense spending and new money-making chances.
Supportive ifNews about contract milestones or more funding.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in contract progress.
Why it matters: Regularly beating earnings can show good performance. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifEarnings beat reported in the next earnings release on August 6, 2026.
Worry ifEarnings miss reported in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it could hurt nLight's performance. The sector is currently in a growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and execution in key markets. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $70 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $63 million.
Why it matters: New contracts would show growth in directed energy and help investor confidence.
Supportive ifA new contract was announced. It is with the Department of Defense for directed energy systems.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced. This shows possible stagnation in market chances.