Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.15-0.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LAUR — officer change
Dated 2026-05-27
The filing describes the approval of a new long-term incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: The full-year EBITDA guide is $593 million to $599 million. Q4 must reach $197.9 million to meet its low end after nine-month results.
Supportive ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $197.9 million. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA reaches $593 million or more.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is below $197.9 million. Or the company lowers its full-year EBITDA guide.
Why it matters: The 2026 revenue guide is $1,920 million to $1,930 million. Reaching at least $1,920 million would show the company made up for calendar shifts.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue is at least $546.4 million, enough to reach the low end of full-year guidance after $1,373.6 million in nine-month revenue.
Worry ifFull-year revenue is below $1,920 million. Or management cuts its 2026 revenue guide before year-end.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,789 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.