Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.76+2.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
LAUR — officer change
Dated 2026-05-27
The filing describes the approval of a new long-term incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Reaching this EBITDA range shows good cost control. It means the company runs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches at least $593 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $583 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for funding growth and paying shareholders. It shows good health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 exceeds $61.9 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 is less than $61.9 million.
Why it matters: The news about the share buyback program shows that management trusts the company.
Supportive ifThey may announce more share buybacks beyond the current $181 million limit.
Worry ifNo new announcements on share repurchases or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifLaureate repurchases at least $75 million of its shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,633 loss on $10,000 · 16.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More students mean high demand for Laureate's education services. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifTotal enrollments exceed 523,000 students for the full year 2026.
Worry ifTotal enrollments fall below 516,000 students for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means improved efficiency and cash flow. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA goes above $0 million. This shows good operational trends.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA stays negative or gets worse than Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue growth and operational efficiency. It is a key event for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 11% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 11% year over year.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss means better cost control. It shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifOperating loss for Q2 2026 reported lower than $(27.5) million.
Worry ifOperating loss for Q2 2026 reported worse than $(27.5) million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for overall performance. Meeting this target shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in Q3 is at least 13% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in Q3 is below 13% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS shows how profitable a company is. Meeting this target means good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 is reported at $2.04 or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 is reported below $2.00.
Why it matters: This growth rate is important. It shows Laureate's revenue and operational strength. It also shows demand for their education services.
Supportive ifTotal enrollments increase by 4% or more compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifTotal enrollments grow less than 4% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance shows strong profit expectations and management confidence. It can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance raised above $2.10 per share.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains at or below $2.04 per share.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases in 2026 are over $150 million.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases in 2026 are less than $150 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows Laureate's strong performance. It also shows market demand.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for 2026 meets or exceeds 13% compared to 2025.
Worry ifRevenue growth for 2026 is below 13% compared to 2025.