Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$2.34 → $2.26 · observed estimates
LANDBRIDGE CO LLC (LB)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.26-12.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $210-$230 million in 2026 | LandBridge aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $210-$230 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $210 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Growth across every revenue stream, together with the expected contribution from recent acquisitions beginning in the fourth quarter, supports our decision to raise the midpoint of our full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $227.5 million.” “(1) Adjusted EBITDA was $59.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 as compared to $44.9 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $42.5 million in the second quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $66.840 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$2.34 → $2.26 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector business with a multi-year thesis tied to continued operating and cash-flow improvement. The thesis is intact, with management priorities on track, but the risk profile is elevated and confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, and the valuation measure rose from 25.6 to 37.5. The model points to a meaningful expectations gap, with some value tied to future optionality, but confidence in that estimate is low and the priced-in assessment is flagged as unjustified.
Near term, recent results show higher adjusted EBITDA and operating income, while operating cash flow remained stable between the first and second quarters of 2026. Management has reaffirmed and increased its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, though recent misses and debt-related events remain risks; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The multi-year view depends on management continuing to deliver its adjusted EBITDA, operating income, and cash-flow priorities. Near term, continued strength from energy-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact on improving fundamentals, but expensive valuation and a turbulent sector backdrop make execution and peer trends important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Cash from operating activities of at least $41.12 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations improved from $16 million to $41 million. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $41 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $41.371M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $41.12 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202641,371,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income of at least $29.18 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $25 million to $29 million in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $29 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $44.158M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $29.18 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202644,158,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.32B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | $2.34 | $316,449,142 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.26 | $316,753,015 | 1 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.