Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lucid Group Inc (LCID)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.37+11.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LCID yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash flow and control capital spending | A supporting condition in Lucid Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is reduce negative cash flow from -$1.19 billion. | Broken | cash flow worsens beyond -$1.2 billion next year | Cash from operations: $-2.408B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce negative cash flow from -$1.19 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-2,407,890,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not an established compounder, and it remains loss-making with elevated risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on some operating priorities, but recent performance is weak and confidence has moved to medium.
The evidence describes LCID as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is deeply negative and model confidence is medium. That suggests low expectations are already reflected, but the valuation signal is not enough to offset the business’s losses and execution risks.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a recent miss make another weak report a key risk; the snapshot puts miss probability at 52%. Management reports progress on its cash-flow improvement plan, with revenue rising from the first to the second quarter of 2026, but production guidance is only mixed as output is planned to be reduced in the third quarter to align with demand.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on whether Lucid delivers the stated cash-flow improvements and maintains its 2026 production guidance while demand is managed. Advancing the Robotaxi, AMP-2, and Midsize programs could support the longer-term case, while a guidance cut or weaker results from sector bellwethers such as Tesla, GM, and Ford would be negative signals.
For the 1-3 year view, Lucid shows operational progress but still has weak financial performance, repeated misses, and elevated execution risk. The thesis hinges on cash-flow delivery and disciplined production and program execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating losses from nearly $1 billion | A primary condition in Lucid Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is operating losses improve toward less negative than -$989 million. | Broken | operating losses worsen beyond -$1 billion next year | Operating income: $-1.082B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating losses improve toward less negative than -$989 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-1,082,168,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Quarterly revenue of $280M to $284M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Lucid Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=280 million USD and <=284 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $280 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $405.347M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=280 million USD and <=284 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026405,347,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual vehicle production of 25,000 to 27,000 units | A primary condition in Lucid Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=25000 units and <=27000 units. | Intact | production falls below 25000 units in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.10 → $-6.26 · observed estimates
$3.99B → $3.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.10 | $3,994,717,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.10 | $3,994,717,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.10 | $3,994,717,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.10 | $3,994,717,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.10 | $3,994,717,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.89 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.75 | $4,169,631,960 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.99 | $3,641,179,600 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.99 | $3,641,179,600 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-5.09 | $3,641,179,600 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.09 | $3,641,179,600 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-5.16 | $3,517,699,568 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-5.24 | $3,392,659,525 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-5.24 | $3,392,659,525 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-5.24 | $3,392,659,525 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-5.31 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-5.31 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-5.31 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-5.10 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-5.35 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-5.74 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-5.92 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.83 | $3,334,732,806 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.17 | $3,385,069,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.17 | $3,385,069,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.17 | $3,385,069,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.17 | $3,385,069,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.30 | $3,203,089,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.30 | $3,203,089,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.30 | $3,203,089,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.30 | $3,203,089,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.30 | $3,203,089,525 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.26 | $3,182,010,546 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.