Lucid Group Inc (LCID)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.98-11.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LCID
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 86.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 141.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers
LCID — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 5, 2026, Lucid Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its production and delivery totals for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Why it matters: Lucid targets $1.4 billion in cash flow improvements for 2026. The earnings call can show how much of that plan is taking hold.
Watch forOn November 9, Lucid reports better cash flow. It confirms progress toward its $1.4 billion 2026 improvement target.
Also watch forOn November 9, Lucid reports weaker cash flow or cuts the $1.4 billion target.
Why it matters: Lucid made 2,954 vehicles in Q3, down from 4,774 in Q2. Its full-year target is 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles.
Worry ifLucid's Q4 production is below 9,011 vehicles, the minimum needed to reach 25,000 for 2026.
Less concerning ifLucid makes at least 9,011 vehicles in Q4, putting full-year production at 25,000 or more.
Why it matters: Lucid drew $400 million in October, bringing the loan balance to about $2.1 billion. More draws would add to its debt burden.
Worry ifA new filing shows Lucid draws more of the remaining $400 million loan amount.
Less concerning ifLucid reports no further loan draws and the amount owed stays near $2.1 billion or falls.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$313 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $860 loss on $10,000 · 8.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,341 loss on $10,000 · 83.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.