Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
loanDepot, Inc. (LDI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.63-7.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LDI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
gain on sale margin near 3.3% by 2026-Q2 | loanDepot aims to improve its gain on sale margin to 3.3%. | Improving | gain on sale margin falls below 270 basis points next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Pull-through weighted gain on sale margin increased 74 basis points to 345 basis points, supported by the Company’s deliberate mix shift toward higher-margin home equity and government loans.” “• Operating leverage strengthened as revenue increased while expenses increased less than 1% to $344 million from the prior quarter, reflecting disciplined cost management and benefits of a more efficient product mix; return on marketing increased 70% and cost-per-funded loan decreased 12% from the second quarter of 2025 1 .” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LDI is a cyclical, high-risk financial business rather than a proven durable compounder. Its thesis state is watch: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
LDI is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations are demanding relative to the model. The valuation signal is medium confidence, and the evidence says priced-in fragility is low, so the cheapness alone does not establish that the business risks are resolved.
Near-term results could remain uneven: the company has missed across recent quarters, and the next print carries a stated 45% miss probability. Recent execution has some positive signs, including higher loan origination volume and revenue, a larger purchase-loan mix, and improved gain-on-sale margins, though that margin priority is rated mixed.
The multi-year view hinges on whether home equity expansion and market-share gains can sustain volume and revenue growth while margins improve. Near-term guidance cuts would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum; the effect of lower interest rates is another stated risk.
LDI’s long-term thesis remains uncertain: operational measures improved in the second quarter, but weak recent performance, volatile management, and high risk keep the business setup fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
net income improves toward profitability | A supporting condition in loanDepot, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income >= $0. | Broken | net income remains negative through FY26 | Net income: $-4.533M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $0. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-4,533,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
loan origination volume between $6.75B and $7.75B | A primary condition in loanDepot, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.75 billion. | Broken | origination volume falls below $6.75 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.22 → $-0.10 · observed estimates
$1.48B → $1.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.22 | $1,480,972,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.22 | $1,480,972,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.22 | $1,480,972,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $1,480,548,067 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.19 | $1,480,548,067 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $1,480,972,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.22 | $1,480,972,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $1,480,548,067 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.11 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $1,465,305,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.13 | $1,390,513,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.14 | $1,464,881,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $1,390,513,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.03 | $1,355,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.10 | $1,282,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.