Leidos (LDOS)
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.05+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LDOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LDOS — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-03-02
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is key for funding operations and investments. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 15% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCash flow from operations goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: A successful joint venture could drive growth and help meet revenue goals. Investors will look for updates on this effort.
Supportive ifA signed agreement for a joint venture was announced.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in forming the joint venture.
Why it matters: The success of this Tender Offer will impact Leidos' debt structure and cash flow. It shows how well the company is managing its liabilities.
Supportive ifCompletion of the Tender Offer with at least 80% of the 2025 Notes validly tendered.
Worry ifFewer than 50% of the 2025 Notes are valid. This shows weak investor confidence.
Why it matters: New partnerships can boost growth and align with Leidos' goal of double-digit revenue growth.
Supportive ifLeidos starts a new joint venture. It aims at specific growth markets.
Worry ifNo new joint ventures announced by the next earnings call on July 28, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $316 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,964 loss on $10,000 · 49.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful completion of the Tender Offer will impact Leidos' debt profile and cash flow. Delays could raise concerns.
Watch forTender Offer for 2025 Notes is completed by February 25, 2025.
Also watch forTender Offer for 2025 Notes is not completed by February 25, 2025.
Why it matters: Progress in forming a strategic joint venture could support Leidos' growth goals. This is important as they aim for double-digit revenue growth.
Supportive ifA new partnership or joint venture will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo updates or progress reported on joint ventures in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show revenue growth and how well the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% and improved cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% and declining cash flow.
Why it matters: Progress on this joint venture is key for future growth and strategic direction.
Watch forLook for news about the joint venture starting or reaching important goals.
Also watch forWatch for delays or the cancellation of the joint venture news.
Why it matters: Updates on joint venture revenue will show progress on the NorthStar 2030 plan.
Watch forJoint venture revenue contribution is confirmed to be $625 million or more for 2026.
Also watch forJoint venture revenue is below $500 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If growth is over 7%, it helps management reach their goal of double-digit revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 7% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 4% year-over-year.
Why it matters: High cash flow helps management focus on increasing cash flow from operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $700 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $500 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the EBITDA margin shows good cost management and makes more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 13% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 12% in Q3.