Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lincoln Electric (LECO)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$272.13-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.55 → 12.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LECO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share growth | Dividends increased to $0.79 per share, showing strong shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.75 next year | Dividend per share: $0.79 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.79 next quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 27, 20260.79 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LECO is a steady industrial business with signs of improving growth and profitability, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, while recent momentum has improved and the sector backdrop remains a headwind.
The valuation is stretched, with LECO trading at a modest premium to peers and expectations somewhat ahead of the model’s view. The market appears to recognize recent strength, though muted share-price reaction and low fragility suggest the thesis is not unusually fragile.
Over the near term, recent results show progress: nine-month sales rose 12.9%, and operating income and margin increased from the first to the third quarter. Management has also reported returning capital and raising the dividend, but the industrial-sector headwind and a history of a deep miss leave guidance and execution important to watch.
For the multi-year view, continued growth through the RISE strategy and further margin progress are key. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while industrial peers’ results could either sustain or remove sector support.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with measurable operating progress balanced against stretched valuation and a mixed sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit improved with operating income rising to $186 million. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below $176M next year |
Operating income: $211.376M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $186M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 2026211,376,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Lincoln Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 15.08% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 27, 202615.081976 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.05 → $12.83 · observed estimates
$4.83B → $5.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.05 | $4,830,805,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.05 | $4,830,805,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.05 | $4,830,805,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.05 | $4,829,758,614 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.05 | $4,829,758,614 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.05 | $4,830,805,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.05 | $4,829,758,614 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.07 | $4,839,885,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.21 | $4,898,284,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.22 | $4,902,690,720 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.22 | $4,902,690,720 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.42 | $4,975,643,060 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.42 | $4,975,643,060 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.52 | $4,991,806,820 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.21 | $4,898,280,836 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.53 | $4,996,787,507 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.53 | $4,996,791,213 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.53 | $4,996,791,213 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.53 | $4,996,791,213 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.53 | $4,996,791,213 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.53 | $4,996,791,213 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.55 | $4,999,630,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.52 | $4,997,490,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.52 | $4,997,490,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.52 | $4,997,490,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.52 | $4,998,127,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.52 | $5,003,627,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.52 | $5,003,627,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.52 | $5,004,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.63 | $5,030,300,794 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.83 | $5,068,322,522 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.