Lincoln Electric (LECO)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$276.44+0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LECO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
LECO — President transition
Dated 2026-08-11
Executive Vice President — Michael J. Whitehead: An Executive Vice President resigned to pursue other opportunities with no disagreement cited and interim leadership already in place.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this level may show weaker performance than before.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.70.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share meets or exceeds $2.70.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the business cycle. It may mean Lincoln Electric is handling industry challenges well.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving the margin shows good cost management. It shows the company can make more money.
Supportive ifIn Q2, the operating income margin was more than 16.6%.
Worry ifIn Q2, the operating income margin was less than 16.0%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows good cost control. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 10% compared to last year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 5% compared to last year in Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,010 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A slowdown in organic sales growth could signal weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at 9% or higher.
Why it matters: A smaller dividend increase might signal lower confidence in future cash flows.
Worry ifDividend per share increase was below $0.79.
Less concerning ifDividend per share increase reported at $0.79 or higher.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase before the Q3 earnings call.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced before the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in dividend per share.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend per share announced.
Why it matters: Weak sector performance could impact Lincoln Electric's growth. It may indicate broader market challenges.
Worry ifSector performance relative to peers shows a decline in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector performance relative to peers improves in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed revenue growth, it could lift Lincoln Electric's sales. It would indicate a healthier market environment.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows further below 3%.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the company's direction. Stability helps with growth plans.
Watch forNew leaders show a smooth transition and keep the focus on strategy.
Also watch forLeadership issues or wrong strategies become clear.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show operational problems. This can affect future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $200 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $200 million.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector improves, it could benefit Lincoln Electric's growth. A shift could indicate better demand for their products.
Supportive ifSector performance shifts from headwind to neutral or better.
Worry ifSector performance remains a headwind.
Why it matters: Better sector performance may mean a recovery in industrials. This could help Lincoln Electric.
Watch forSector performance is better than peers like CAT and GE. This shows positive momentum.
Also watch forSector performance is still behind peers. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Better operating income would mean Lincoln Electric is controlling costs well. This is important for making more money long-term.
Supportive ifOperating income growth improves from the current progress score of 72.0.
Worry ifOperating income growth goes down or stays the same.