Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lifestance Health (LFST)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$13.43-5.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.22 → 0.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LFST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase adjusted EBITDA to $200-$220 million in 2026 | Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $220 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $200 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LFST is a growth business with improving profitability, rather than an established profit compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent results, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
LFST trades at a 2.65-times premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is that this premium is justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, at -0.06, but model confidence is low, so the degree of optimism already reflected in valuation is uncertain.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals are on track, and both guidance ranges were raised in recent quarters. Q2 2026 revenue grew 26% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA grew 94%; clinician numbers and visit volumes also increased. The business remains loss-making, and a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening would add risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management continuing to deliver against its raised 2026 goals and expanding the clinician base and visit volumes. Weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. A guidance cut is a meaningful negative scenario.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LFST has a strong growth and improving-profitability story, but its peer valuation premium and loss-making status leave execution and the economic backdrop important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Quarterly revenue and profit keep improving. |
| Intact |
| Quarterly revenue or operating income falls below targets |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue to $1.64-$1.68 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Lifestance Health's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.64 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.64 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $455.864M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.64 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026455,864,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.39 → $0.22 · observed estimates
$1.90B → $1.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.39 | $1,901,003,220 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.20 | $1,901,593,659 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.39 | $1,901,003,220 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.39 | $1,901,283,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.39 | $1,901,283,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.39 | $1,901,283,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.39 | $1,901,283,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.39 | $1,901,283,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.20 | $1,901,874,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.39 | $1,902,063,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.39 | $1,902,063,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.39 | $1,902,063,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.39 | $1,902,063,620 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.52 | $1,938,149,530 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.20 | $1,902,654,059 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.22 | $1,953,996,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.22 | $1,956,056,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.22 | $1,956,036,104 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.22 | $1,955,114,504 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.