Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LGI Homes (LGIH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.15-3.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.79 → 3.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LGIH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Average sales price per home between $355,000 and $365,000 | The company targets an average sales price per home between $355,000 and $365,000. | Intact | average sales price falls below $355,000 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are also raising the guidance for our full-year average sales price per home closed to between $360,000 and $370,000.”” “Full Year 2026 Outlook Subject to the caveats in the Forward-Looking Statements section of this press release and the assumptions noted below, the Company is narrowing its home closings outlook for the full year 2026 and reiterating its other outlook items for the full year 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical homebuilding business, where results can shift with the housing sector, rather than a clearly durable compounder. The thesis is on watch, with momentum improving but recent financial performance still below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes LGIH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s reference point. The evidence also labels the pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not suggest that weak execution alone has created a concentrated expectations risk.
Near term, management has made progress on average sales prices, raised full-year price and gross margin guidance, and expanded active communities toward its year-end goal. Margin and community progress are mixed, while earnings quality is fragile and recent performance has lagged peers. The snapshot also notes recent misses, so execution remains a risk despite the latest guidance raise.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on LGIH sustaining its guidance and converting its priorities into consistent results. A guidance cut after the recent raise would add a credibility concern. Results and guidance from sector leaders such as DHI, PHM, and LEN could also signal whether sector support is strengthening or fading.
The multi-year view is mixed: management is showing progress, but fragile earnings quality, peer underperformance, and elevated risk keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow improves toward positive | A supporting condition in LGI Homes's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow yield >= 0%. | Intact | free cash flow yield remains negative over next 4 quarters | Free cash flow yield: 11.42% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202611.42 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year gross margin near 19.5% in 2026 | LGI Homes aims to raise its full-year gross margin to about 19.5% in 2026. | Improving | gross margin falls below 18.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 19.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 18.5% to 20.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202619.706694 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““On the strength of our outperformance in the first half of the year, we are raising our full-year gross margin guidance for the second consecutive quarter.” “Full Year 2026 Outlook Subject to the caveats in the Forward-Looking Statements section of this press release and the assumptions noted below, the Company is narrowing its home closings outlook for the full year 2026 and reiterating its other outlook items for the full year 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth about 14% in next 12 months | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 14% next year. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 13.6% over next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.94 → $3.19 · observed estimates
$2.07B → $1.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.78 | $2,066,833,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.78 | $2,066,833,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.78 | $2,066,833,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.94 | $2,069,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.94 | $2,059,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.94 | $2,059,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.42 | $2,079,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.42 | $2,079,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.79 | $2,074,493,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.65 | $2,033,960,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.19 | $1,769,261,333 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.