LGI Homes (LGIH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.90+12.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LGIH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LGIH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 9, 2026, LGI Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Seventh Amendment to Fifth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with several financial institutions and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”), which amended the Fifth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of April 28, 2021, with several financial institutions and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as adminis…
Why it matters: LGI Homes raised its full-year price range after Q2. A price above $360,000 would support that higher goal.
Supportive ifQ3 average sales price per home closed is at least $360,000, within the updated $360,000–$370,000 full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 average sales price per home closed is below $355,000, under both the updated and prior guidance floors.
Why it matters: LGI Homes kept its annual closing range at 4,600–5,400. Q3 results show whether sales are on pace to reach it.
Watch forQ3 year-to-date home closings are at least 3,450, keeping the company on pace for 4,600 closings or more.
Also watch forQ3 year-to-date home closings are below 3,450, putting the 4,600-home floor out of reach at the current pace.
Why it matters: LGI Homes amended its credit agreement in October. The full terms can show whether the change adds debt or eases its terms.
Watch forThe filed amendment shows lower borrowing costs or more credit available. It adds no debt burden.
Also watch forThe filed amendment shows higher borrowing costs, tighter limits, or new debt.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $595 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,426 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.