LGI Homes (LGIH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.00+0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LGIH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LGIH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, LGI Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. None of the information furnished in this
Why it matters: Changing auditors can reveal issues in the company. It may also show changes in financial checks.
Worry ifA new independent accounting firm has been announced. It is well-respected.
Less concerning ifNo announcement of a new firm or negative reactions from investors.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future sales and demand. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog growth exceeds 10% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future sales potential. A strong backlog can support revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog homes increase by more than 10% from Q1 to Q2.
Worry ifBacklog homes decrease or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows effective expansion and market presence. It supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifActive selling groups reach or go over 160.
Worry ifActive selling groups drop below 150.
Why it matters: A growing backlog means strong future sales and demand for homes.
Supportive ifBacklog increases by more than 10% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or remains flat in Q3.
Why it matters: A high gross margin shows good cost control and strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 22% for Q2.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 20% for Q2.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth may mean less demand or issues with managing inventory.
Worry ifBacklog growth in Q2 is less than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth in Q2 exceeds 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for LGI Homes. It may affect demand for new homes.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below the median for the last quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median for the last quarter.
Why it matters: Home closings are a key measure of sales performance. Strong closings support revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 home closings reach or exceed 1,200 units.
Worry ifQ2 home closings fall below 1,000 units.
Why it matters: A rise in average sales price signals strong demand and pricing power. This can boost overall revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 average sales price per home closed rises above $365,000.
Worry ifAverage sales price per home closed falls below $355,000.
Why it matters: Backlog growth reflects future sales potential and demand for homes.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to over 1,800 homes.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or stays below 1,699 homes.
Why it matters: A rise to the top of the new guidance range shows strong pricing power. It signals demand strength and effective pricing strategies.
Supportive ifAverage sales price per home closed reaches or exceeds $370,000.
Worry ifAverage sales price per home closed stays below $360,000.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show pricing or cost problems. This would make it hard for management to improve margins.
Worry ifHomebuilding gross margin falls below 19.0%.
Less concerning ifHomebuilding gross margin stays above 21.0%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows effective expansion and demand management. It supports long-term growth and market presence.
Supportive ifActive selling communities reach or go over 160.
Worry ifActive selling groups are below 150.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog may show weaker demand. This would hurt management's confidence in meeting sales goals.
Worry ifBacklog falls below 1,394 homes.
Less concerning ifBacklog increases beyond 1,500 homes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,890 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.