L3Harris (LHX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$256.45-2.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve revenue near $23.25B in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $23.2B-$23.7B vs ~$23.25B target.
L3Harris grows sales about 12% a year, helped by new orders and facility expansions. Profit margin is guided to stay near 16%. The company raised EPS guidance to about $11.5 for 2026. Free cash flow is expected above $3 billion, supporting financial strength.
The recent 18% stock drop shows market worries. Growth could slow below 12%. Profit margins might shrink under cost pressures. EPS could miss raised guidance if demand weakens.
The price is about 1% below our fair value near $298. Analysts expect roughly 12% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations but sees risk from market stress.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.5 in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $2.65B in FY26
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 15% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious bet on a company in the industrial sector, facing both challenges and opportunities. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent performance has been strong but shows signs of slipping.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, with the company's execution quality being weak but not overly punitive. LHX is seen as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that expectations may be lower than for other companies in the sector.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, as management is on track with priorities like revenue growth and margin improvement. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings guidance cuts, which could impact credibility.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for LHX; conversely, any underperformance could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company had a recent earnings beat. However, management stability decreased with the CEO's departure. This change may disrupt investor confidence and strategic execution.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $22B in FY26
Overall, LHX's trajectory will depend on management's execution and external sector conditions over the next few years. Not investment advice.