L3Harris (LHX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$256.45-2.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LHX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
LHX — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CEO — Christopher Kubasik: The outgoing CEO resigned following an investigation into conduct inconsistent with company values, indicating a forced departure rather than a routine succession.
Why it matters: Updates on this investment will show how L3Harris is growing and meeting defense needs.
Watch forThere are good updates on the $1B investment in Missile Solutions.
Also watch forBad news or delays about the investment's impact on operations.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong demand and growth potential. It reflects management's confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $23.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $23 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The IPO could unlock significant value and funding for L3Harris' missile programs. It reflects growth and strategic focus.
Supportive ifThe IPO date is announced or the IPO process is completed.
Worry ifThe IPO is delayed or canceled. This is due to market conditions or regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Maintaining operating margin is key for L3Harris to show it can control costs. This affects profitability.
Supportive ifOperating margin stays stable or gets better than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating margin drops a lot compared to last quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $271 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,201 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If L3Harris raises its revenue guidance, it shows stronger growth expectations. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in revenue guidance for the next fiscal year.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers revenue guidance for the next fiscal year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO's leadership style may change L3Harris' priorities and execution.
Watch forNew CEO Sam Mehta shares a clear vision and keeps growth on track.
Also watch forUncertainty can cause missed targets. It may also lead to negative reactions in the market.
Why it matters: The new CFO may change financial strategies. This could affect revenue and cost management.
Watch forThe new CFO uses plans that help the company make more money.
Also watch forThe change causes confusion or delays in financial reports.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS guidance signals L3Harris is on track with its profit goals. This can impact stock performance.
Supportive ifL3Harris reports EPS that meets or exceeds its guidance.
Worry ifL3Harris reports EPS that falls short of its guidance.
Why it matters: More free cash flow shows strong financial health and funds for growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance above $3.0 billion.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers free cash flow guidance below $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: Sam Mehta's leadership will shape L3Harris's future. His plans can impact growth and stability.
Watch forA press release shows growth plans or changes under Mehta's leadership.
Also watch forNo clear plan was shared within three months of his appointment.
Why it matters: Meeting EPS guidance shows strong earnings and good management.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS meets or exceeds the guidance of $11.80-$12.00.
Worry ifDiluted EPS is below $11.40. This shows possible earnings challenges.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows strong demand. It also shows that management is executing well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A strong operating margin shows good cost control. It also shows efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifOperating margin is over 11% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 10.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows strong cash generation. This helps with growth and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow stays positive in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will shape L3Harris's future and impact its market position.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a public statement.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to communicate a coherent strategy or vision.