Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AEye Inc (LIDR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.89-12.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LIDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash burn limited to $30M-$35M in 2026 | Management aims to reduce cash burn to $30M-$35M in 2026. | Intact | Cash burn exceeds $35 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative growth business, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: customer and deployment progress is encouraging, but recent financial performance is weak and the company remains loss-making.
The valuation model places LIDR at a 25.58% premium to peers, with low confidence in that estimate. The expectations gap is 1.92, and the evidence points to optionality as the main source of valuation support, while the premium appears difficult to justify given weak results and high risk.
Near term, revenue has grown from a small base, and management says converting its pipeline into revenue-generating relationships remains a priority. Cash use has been within the stated guidance range in the first two quarters of 2026, though progress on reducing annual cash burn is mixed; recent earnings misses and a higher risk label add uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on deployments becoming repeat customer revenue and on progress in defense and automotive relationships. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing interest rates or steadier results and guidance from large technology companies could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains uncertain: customer activity is advancing, but durable revenue growth and controlled cash use are not yet established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in AEye Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows vs -$0.68 in FY26. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.70 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.22 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows vs -$0.68 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $3.35M in 2026 | A primary condition in AEye Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.35 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.0 million in FY26 | Revenue: $202,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.35 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026202,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.66 → $-0.64 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.66 | $22,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.64 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.64 | $17,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.