AEye Inc (LIDR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.370.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LIDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 324.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 314.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LIDR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change a company's plans and results. Investors must see how this affects the company.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO or CFO with a strong track record.
Also watch forMore key executives may leave. There are no clear replacements.
Why it matters: More deployments prove AEye's technology works. This will help it grow in the market.
Supportive ifOPTIS is now used at more active intersections.
Worry ifNo new deployments of OPTIS at intersections.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue would show continued strong demand and commercial success. It confirms the growth trajectory.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $202,000. This shows strong commercial use.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $202,000. This suggests demand is slowing.
Why it matters: New contracts or repeat orders show AEye's strength in defense. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifThere is news of new defense contracts or repeat orders from current customers.
Worry ifNo new contracts or repeat orders in the next quarter. This shows possible weakness.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$239 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $759 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,955 loss on $10,000 · 69.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful deployments can lead to more contracts and revenue. It shows AEye's technology is effective in real-world applications.
Supportive ifNew OPTIS deployments were announced in at least two more locations.
Worry ifThere are no new OPTIS deployments in other locations.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth shows strong demand. It also supports the growing commercial pipeline.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $101,000.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue stays below $101,000.
Why it matters: Successful deployments help AEye's partnerships. They also boost its image in the market.
Supportive ifAt least two successful deployments have been reported from partnerships.
Worry ifThere have been no successful deployments from partnerships.
Why it matters: Validation on new platforms would boost AEye's credibility. This would help attract investors.
Supportive ifA public announcement said Apollo works on more platforms than NVIDIA.
Worry ifNo new validations were announced. This suggests limited market growth.
Why it matters: More customers show that the market is accepting the product. This helps the revenue outlook.
Supportive ifActive customer count increases beyond 21.
Worry ifActive customer count does not increase from 21.
Why it matters: New deals would indicate AEye's growing presence in the automotive market, crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifThere will be at least one new deal in the car industry in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new commercial deals announced in the automotive sector in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change how the company handles money. This can change the company's path.
Watch forThe new CFO shares a plan. This plan helps the company's financial outlook.
Also watch forNew CFO fails to present a clear strategy, leading to uncertainty.
Why it matters: New deals in sports analytics can bring in more money. They also support AEye's technology.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new commercial deal in sports analytics.
Worry ifNo new commercial deals in sports analytics announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key to proving AEye's commercial strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year-over-year by at least 50%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Repeat orders show that customers are happy. This can lead to steady income.
Supportive ifAt least two additional repeat orders from defense customers in Q3.
Worry ifNo repeat orders from defense customers in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping cash burn in check is crucial for AEye's financial health and runway.
Supportive ifCash burn in Q3 reported at or below $8.75 million.
Worry ifCash burn in Q3 exceeds $10 million.
Why it matters: New contracts in space mobility can bring in more money. This can help growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one additional contract in space mobility by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo new contracts in space mobility by the end of Q3.