AEye Inc (LIDR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.010.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LIDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 213.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 203.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LIDR — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 15, 2026, AEye, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an At Market Issuance Sales Agreement (the “ Sales Agreement ”) with A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners (“ A.G.P. ”). In accordance with the terms of the Sales Agreement, the Company may offer and sell from time to time through A.G.P., acting as sales agent, the Company’s common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $50,000,000 (the “ Placement Shares ”). The Placement Shares…
Why it matters: Revenue grew for four straight quarters, but it remains very small. More growth would show that new deals are turning into sales.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $202,000, the Q2 2026 level. The company reports paid customer deployments.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is at or below $202,000, with no new paid deployments reported.
Why it matters: AEye reported 25 customers with revenue shipments and rising quotes and engagements. More growth would support the claim that its pipeline is broadening.
Supportive ifThe next update reports more than 25 customers shipping revenue. Quotes and engagements both rise from Q2 levels.
Worry ifThe next update says 25 or fewer customers ship revenue, or quotes or engagements drop from Q2 levels.
Why it matters: The company set a $30 million to $35 million cash-use range for 2026. Spending above that range would weaken its stated cash runway.
Worry ifA company update reports 2026 cash use above $35 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 cash use is $35 million or less, within the stated range.
Why it matters: The customer has placed three paid orders in a row. Another order would show that repeat sales are continuing.
Supportive ifThe lead defense customer places a fourth paid order, or AEye reports another paid defense use.
Worry ifThe company reports no new paid order from the lead defense customer in its next results update.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $719 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,902 loss on $10,000 · 69.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The multi-million-dollar contract ties a new market to NASA funding. Delays or reduced funding could slow the planned deployment.
Watch forLunar Outpost or AEye confirms NASA-backed funds are ready. It gives a clear step toward deploying Apollo on the Pegasus vehicle.
Also watch forA company filing or public update says NASA funding is delayed, cut, or unavailable. It says deployment is paused.