Ethos Technologies Inc (LIFE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.85+5.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LIFE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 72.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 96.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LIFE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, except as expressly incorporated…
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows strong financial health. Ethos can grow without outside funding.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is above $31.2 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $31.2 million.
Why it matters: If the financial sector's revenue growth is below the median, it could signal bigger problems for Ethos.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above the median. This shows continued strength.
Why it matters: Keeping this metric stable or better shows good product management.
Watch forAverage revenue per unit reported above $1,758 in Q3.
Also watch forAverage revenue per unit reported below $1,700 in Q3.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show ongoing financial problems. It could hurt investor trust and stock value.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a loss greater than the previous quarter's $166.4M.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit. This indicates recovery.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$347 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $887 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,011 loss on $10,000 · 50.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends can impact Ethos. A slowdown may affect their ability to achieve revenue targets.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is over 15% year over year. This supports Ethos's growth potential.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth falls below its median. This suggests possible challenges for Ethos.
Why it matters: Falling short of this target would raise concerns about growth momentum and meeting annual guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $114 million. This shows big growth challenges.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue exceeds $118 million, showing strong growth and execution.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is crucial for Ethos to stay on track for its annual revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $193.9M or more. This shows progress towards the $561M to $565M annual target.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was less than $193.9M. This shows challenges in meeting annual revenue goals.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth after two strong quarters. Investors may react negatively.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported at $160 million or lower, confirming a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $164 million. This shows strong growth continues.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate challenges in managing costs as growth slows.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $23 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $25 million. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks shows that management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the first share repurchase under the $100 million program.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were reported by the end of Q3. This shows low confidence.