Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lincoln Educational Services Corp. (LINC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.55-12.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.03 → 1.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LINC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $72.5 million in FY26 | A supporting condition in Lincoln Educational Services Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~72.5 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Capex exceeds $75 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $14.498M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~72.5 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202614,498,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented education business with a cyclical risk profile, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is mildly favorable after an earnings beat and improving guidance, but remains in watch status because recent performance trails its industry cohort.
LINC is valued at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable growth. The evidence describes that premium as justified, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation leaves limited room for execution to disappoint.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 revenue and earnings guidance and year-to-date student-start growth support continued progress. Still, earnings quality is fragile, and weakening jobs data or a guidance cut could challenge that progress; the evidence puts near-term miss risk in a quiet tier.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining student-start growth and delivering the raised revenue and earnings guidance. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakness would be unfavorable, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LINC’s growth progress is encouraging, but high risk, fragile earnings quality, and a peer premium make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lincoln Educational Services Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.74 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.74 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.74 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $590 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Lincoln Educational Services Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=590 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $590 million in FY26 | Revenue: $142.56M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=590 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026142,560,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Student start growth of 10% to 14% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Lincoln Educational Services Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 14% growth. | Intact | Student start growth falls below 10% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.09 → $1.03 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.08 | $650,528,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.04 | $648,804,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.04 | $648,804,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.09 | $649,492,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.03 | $649,559,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.03 | $648,809,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.03 | $648,807,667 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.