Lincoln Educational Services Corp. (LINC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.64+0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LINC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LINC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In order to fund a portion of the purchase price for the Property acquired, as described in
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean issues with student enrollment. It could also show problems with efficiency.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 22%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 22%.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue, EPS, and student growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and EPS above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals revenue and EPS below guidance.
Why it matters: This guidance shows strong performance. It also helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifRevenue reported between $590 million and $600 million for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue is below $590 million.
Why it matters: More capital spending helps build new campuses. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is between $95 million and $100 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $95 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $414 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,636 loss on $10,000 · 56.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Opening these campuses is key to expanding Lincoln's footprint and student base. It supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifHicksville and Rowlett campuses start enrollment on time.
Worry ifHicksville and Rowlett campuses do not open on schedule or face delays.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong demand and good hiring plans.
Supportive ifManagement increases the full-year student starts guidance to more than 14%.
Worry ifManagement cuts the full-year student starts guidance to less than 10%.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance is key for revenue growth and reflects demand for skilled trades education.
Supportive ifQ3 student starts increase year over year by at least 10%.
Worry ifQ3 student starts increase year over year by less than 10%.
Why it matters: Successful M&A can enhance growth and market position. It shows strategic expansion.
Supportive ifM&A activities are done. They have a good financial impact.
Worry ifM&A activities are late. They do not give the expected benefits.
Why it matters: This guidance shows better profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income reported between $23 million and $26 million.
Worry ifNet income reported below $23 million.
Why it matters: Updates on student start growth will show if demand for programs continues strong.
Supportive ifManagement raises student start growth guidance above 14% for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers student start growth guidance below 10% for 2026.
Why it matters: This suggests lower profits. It could change how investors feel.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $20 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is at or above $20 million for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for Lincoln's revenue and overall success. It shows demand for their programs.
Supportive ifStudent starts grow between 10% and 14% for the full year 2026.
Worry ifStudent starts grow less than 10% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could signal better conditions for Lincoln's business.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 4%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below 4%. It is still slowing down.