Lincoln Educational Services Corp. (LINC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.11-1.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LINC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
LINC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In order to fund a portion of the purchase price for the Property acquired, as described in
Why it matters: Lincoln said its Hicksville campus was on schedule to start enrollment in the fourth quarter. A delay could push back growth plans.
Watch forLincoln confirms Hicksville began enrollment in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Also watch forLincoln reports that Hicksville enrollment did not start in the fourth quarter or that the opening was delayed.
Why it matters: First-half revenue rose 22.5%, and Lincoln kept its full-year outlook. The next results will test whether growth holds.
Watch forLincoln reports 2026 revenue of $590 million to $600 million, within its guidance range. It does not lower the range.
Also watch forLincoln lowers its 2026 revenue outlook below $590 million. Or, it reports full-year revenue below $590 million.
Why it matters: Lincoln's costs rose as it served more students and opened campuses. Results will show whether earnings growth keeps pace.
Watch forLincoln reports 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $76 million to $80 million. This includes about $10 million in growth costs.
Also watch forLincoln cuts its adjusted EBITDA outlook below $76 million. Or, it reports less than $76 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Suitland is Lincoln's first focused-program campus. It will offer Electrical and HVAC training at less than half the cost of a standard campus buildout.
Watch forLincoln reports that the Suitland campus opened in the fourth quarter of 2027. It offers Electrical and HVAC training.
Also watch forLincoln reports a delay beyond the fourth quarter of 2027 or cancels the Suitland campus plan.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $404 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,388 loss on $10,000 · 63.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Second-quarter starts grew just 1% after a strong first quarter. Full-year guidance depends on faster starts later this year.
Watch forIn the next results, Lincoln reports full-year student starts up 10% to 14% year over year.
Also watch forLincoln reports full-year student starts up less than 10%, or cuts its 10% to 14% growth outlook.