Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.52+2.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LIND yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | A primary condition in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $119M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented travel business with loss-making earnings quality, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: management’s 2026 tour revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals are on track, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is about 9% above peers, while the expectations gap is modestly positive and the pricing evidence is tagged as justified. Valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not point to a high level of fragility in what the market assumes.
Near term, tour revenue and adjusted EBITDA have grown year over year in the first two quarters of 2026, and management raised its tour revenue guidance while keeping its adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic despite two reported earnings beats.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on delivering the 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals and sustaining the recent growth. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strong results from travel bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The multi-year view has evidence of operating progress, but loss-making earnings quality and performance below the industry cohort leave important execution questions. The thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| They increased ownership in Natural Habitat to 95%. |
| Intact |
| Ownership stake falls below 90% |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $800-$850M tour revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $800-$850M total revenue. | Intact | Revenue falls below $745M in FY26 | Revenue: $269.151M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $800-$850M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026269,151,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.35 → $0.55 · observed estimates
$0.91B → $0.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.35 | $906,104,550 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.31 | $901,745,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.35 | $906,104,550 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.35 | $906,104,550 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.33 | $905,388,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.42 | $905,893,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.42 | $910,773,610 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.34 | $909,454,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.44 | $922,822,750 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.44 | $922,822,750 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.40 | $922,078,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.39 | $922,496,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.41 | $927,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.46 | $935,643,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.46 | $935,643,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.46 | $935,643,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.48 | $942,286,714 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.48 | $942,286,714 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.50 | $948,713,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.50 | $948,713,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.50 | $948,713,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.50 | $948,713,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.50 | $948,707,857 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.51 | $949,276,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.55 | $962,654,714 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.