Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.87-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LIND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LIND — director transition
Dated 2026-03-25
Chief Maritime Officer — Rear Admiral Keith Taylor (Ret.): Mr. Taylor was promoted to an executive officer role within the company.
Why it matters: More ownership could help Lindblad's market position and control.
Watch forThey said they now own 95% of Natural Habitat.
Also watch forNo news on ownership increase.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the consumer sector. Lindblad works in this area.
Supportive ifConsumer sector revenue growth is now positive after being negative for less than a year.
Worry ifConsumer sector revenue keeps falling. There are no signs of recovery.
Why it matters: Updates on the stock buyback plan may show management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifThere is news of more stock buybacks or finishing the current plan.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the stock repurchase plan.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows the company is on track for strong growth in 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 tour revenue reported at $800 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 tour revenue reported below $800 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $403 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,636 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this EBITDA target shows good performance and profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $130 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $130 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong demand and supports the growth goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 tour revenues were $215 million or more. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 tour revenues were under $200 million. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: This shows the company can control costs while increasing revenues.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $35 million or more. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $30 million. This may mean cost problems.
Why it matters: Completing this plan shows that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished the stock repurchase plan.
Worry ifNo more repurchases happen. This may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates are important for making money and growth.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates were 90% or more for Q3. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fell below 85%. This suggests less interest in cruises.