Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$525.28-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $525 LMT trades at 19× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median. Our $640 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $575–$700. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $590.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1229.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1245.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $273.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$575.00 – $700.00 (median $590.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-07-27
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $152.18 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1147.44 | 30.4 | 37.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $887.59 | 27.8 | 31.95 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1098.05 | 3.3 | 333.25 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1149.68 | 42.4 | 27.13 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $135.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $597.89 | 22.0 | 27.13 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $873.44 | 30.3 | 28.80 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1668.23 | 30.4 | 54.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $943.87 | 27.8 | 33.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1267.91 | 3.3 | 384.80 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1439.71 | 42.4 | 33.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $748.72 | 22.0 | 33.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $2140.94 | 30.4 | 70.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $986.91 | 27.8 | 35.52 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1325.72 | 3.3 | 402.35 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1505.35 | 42.4 | 35.52 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $782.86 | 22.0 | 35.52 | Analyst | high |