Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$535.28-0.51%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $535.28. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $535 LMT trades at 26× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median, but our blended $508 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $575–$700. Note: our $508 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($575–$700). Not investment advice.
$575.00 – $700.00 (median $595.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-25
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $26.49/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $595.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $423.75 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $375.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $123.49 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $122.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $1137.17 | 38.2 | 29.80 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $837.58 | 34.2 | 24.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $788.01 | 38.2 | 20.65 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1084.19 | 3.3 | 324.99 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $775.40 | 37.5 | 20.65 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $107.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $490.56 | 23.8 | 20.65 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $814.33 | 38.2 | 21.34 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $2782.99 | 38.2 | 72.93 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $757.57 | 34.2 | 22.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1321.74 | 38.2 | 34.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1296.92 | 3.3 | 388.76 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1300.58 | 37.5 | 34.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $822.82 | 23.8 | 34.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $5054.00 | 38.2 | 132.44 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $708.52 | 34.2 | 20.73 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1453.10 | 38.2 | 38.08 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1425.82 | 3.3 | 427.40 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1429.85 | 37.5 | 38.08 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $904.61 | 23.8 | 38.08 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.