Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$576.16-3.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
32.71 → 33.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver EPS between $29.35 and $30.25 in FY26 | A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $29.35 and $30.25. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $29.35 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $7.97 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $29.35 and $30.25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20267.97 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large defense and industrial business with a growth-and-production execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis state is watch: recent momentum improved, but financial performance slipped notably over the past month and the evidence overall is mixed.
The valuation evidence calls LMT cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment says expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion between expectations and execution.
Near term, recent results and guidance are supportive: third-quarter sales rose year over year, management reported growth across all four segments, and it raised its 2026 sales, earnings, and free-cash-flow outlook for a second straight quarter. Delivery is mixed, since quarterly free cash flow was lower year over year and the sector backdrop is a headwind; the supplied near-term miss-risk assessment is low, but it notes a history of misses.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued production ramps and growth translating into steady execution, including progress toward the stated free-cash-flow commitment. A reversal and guidance cut after recent increases would weaken credibility, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers could reinforce or remove industry support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LMT has improving sales and guidance, but the thesis remains watchful because execution quality and the sector backdrop are not fully settled. The evidence supports a mixed, moderately risky setup rather than a clear-cut long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets EPS near $29.80 and free cash flow around $6.6 billion. |
| Improving |
| Free cash flow falls below $6.0 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $2.999B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.6 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20262,999,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 25% operating profit growth year-over-year | A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is 25% YoY operating profit growth. | Broken | Operating profit growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26 | Operating margin: 11.45% FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 25% YoY operating profit growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Apr 23, 202611.447755 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $78.75B in FY26 | A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is ~$78.75 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $73.75 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $20.711B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$78.75 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202620,711,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$32.25 → $33.33 · observed estimates
$83.74B → $87.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $32.25 | $83,742,308,061 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $32.38 | $84,293,102,080 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $32.39 | $84,704,144,062 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $32.39 | $84,704,144,062 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $32.39 | $84,704,144,062 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $32.63 | $85,418,731,808 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $32.63 | $85,418,731,808 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $32.65 | $85,185,277,050 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $32.65 | $85,185,277,050 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $32.65 | $85,185,258,920 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $32.69 | $85,308,163,680 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $32.63 | $85,418,828,494 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $32.67 | $85,525,477,189 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $32.67 | $85,525,464,351 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,209 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,209 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,208 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,208 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,208 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $32.68 | $85,565,287,208 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $32.71 | $85,657,477,684 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $32.71 | $85,657,476,236 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $32.71 | $85,657,476,236 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $32.71 | $85,657,476,236 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $32.71 | $85,783,181,862 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $32.72 | $85,789,713,680 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $32.70 | $85,794,773,222 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $32.70 | $85,786,512,352 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $32.72 | $85,776,262,460 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $32.76 | $85,881,740,721 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $32.76 | $85,881,740,721 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $32.76 | $85,881,740,721 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $32.75 | $85,875,102,504 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $32.75 | $85,875,102,504 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $32.75 | $85,875,102,504 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $32.75 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $32.75 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $32.79 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $32.79 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $32.79 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $32.79 | $85,875,663,373 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $32.79 | $85,899,465,524 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $32.95 | $86,336,949,804 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $33.02 | $86,614,621,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $33.02 | $86,614,621,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $33.02 | $86,614,621,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $33.02 | $86,614,621,198 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $33.20 | $87,064,794,792 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $33.24 | $87,166,881,748 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $33.24 | $87,166,881,748 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $33.27 | $87,166,881,748 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $33.31 | $87,322,565,337 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $33.31 | $87,322,565,337 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $33.33 | $87,397,735,115 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $33.33 | $87,397,735,115 | 16 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.