Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$525.28-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 25% operating profit growth year-over-year: Operating profit growth not reported vs 25% target.
Lockheed Martin wins large defense contracts supporting sales growth. Revenue guidance is about $78.75 billion for 2026. The company targets EPS near $29.80 and free cash flow around $6.6 billion. Its valuation is cheaper than peers with a PE of 25.9 versus 38.2.
Recent earnings missed expectations and guidance is soft. Operating profit growth target of 25% year-over-year is not yet met. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is down 16% from highs. Execution risks remain amid macro uncertainty.
The price is about 5% above our fair value near $507 and 15% below the Street median target. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth. Our view aligns with consensus but is more cautious on margin and profit growth.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $29.35 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $6.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Operating profit growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth and cash flow generation. The current thesis state is stable, with management prioritizing accelerated sales and profit growth.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation, with LMT priced as cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance may already be factored into the stock.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strong performance, as management has raised guidance for both sales and free cash flow. However, there is a moderate risk due to past earnings misses, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could support LMT's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company is expected to achieve sales and profit growth. There are also new agreements to increase missile production rates. No new threats have emerged to weaken the outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $73.75 billion in FY26
Overall, LMT's trajectory appears positive, but it is essential to monitor sector developments closely. Not investment advice.