Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$576.16-3.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LMT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-27
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement On August 24, 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a new 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as borrower, the lenders listed therein (the “Lenders”), JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as syndication agent, Citibank, N.A., Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Mizuho Bank, Ltd. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as doc…
Why it matters: The industrial sector has a headwind and slowing growth. Lockheed's recent sales growth may stand out if it continues.
Watch forLockheed keeps sales growth above 8% year over year in its next reported quarter.
Also watch forLockheed reports flat or falling sales year over year while the sector stays in a headwind.
Why it matters: Q3 results included added losses on both programs. More charges could weaken Aeronautics profit despite higher F-35 sales.
Worry ifA later quarter shows new F-16 or C-130 profit cuts, or Aeronautics profit falls from a year ago.
Less concerning ifAeronautics profit grows from a year ago, with no new F-16 or C-130 profit cuts.
Why it matters: Sales rose 11% in Q3, and the company raised its full-year range twice. Meeting the new range would confirm that growth is holding.
Supportive ifLockheed reports 2026 sales near or above the updated $80.0 billion to $82.0 billion range.
Worry ifLockheed cuts the sales range or reports 2026 sales below $80.0 billion.
Why it matters: Lockheed is still negotiating these production contracts. Its costs already exceed current funding for Lot 20, which could hurt cash and earnings.
Watch forA contract update shows added U.S. funding for Lot 20 and higher, with no costs beyond the approved amount.
Also watch forLockheed reports more costs beyond approved funding, or says talks remain unresolved in its next results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,735 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow was $3.0 billion, below the year-ago quarter. The full-year range is now $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion.
Watch forLockheed reports 2026 free cash flow of at least $7.8 billion.
Also watch forLockheed cuts its free cash flow range below $7.8 billion, or reports full-year cash flow below that level.