Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$525.28-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
LMT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-27
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement On August 24, 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a new 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as borrower, the lenders listed therein (the “Lenders”), JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as syndication agent, Citibank, N.A., Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Mizuho Bank, Ltd. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as doc…
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive, exceeding $6.5 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or below $6.5 billion.
Why it matters: New agreements show strong demand. They also help increase production capacity.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of new multiyear agreements with the Department of War.
Worry ifNo new agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Operating profit margin shows how well a company uses its resources. A drop may mean higher costs or problems.
Worry ifQ2 operating profit margin was less than 10.6%.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating profit margin was more than 10.6%.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong demand and future revenue. Lockheed Martin's backlog shows business health.
Supportive ifBacklog increases beyond the current $194 billion.
Worry ifBacklog drops or does not grow much from $194 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,735 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on this deal could change Lockheed Martin's plans and financial outlook.
Watch forCompletion or big progress on the Ultra Maritime deal will be announced.
Also watch forNo updates or delays have been reported about the deal.
Why it matters: Growing munitions production can boost revenue and performance. This is important for future deals.
Supportive ifMunitions production needs to rise by 3 to 4 times the current rate.
Worry ifNo big rise in production rates or delays in munitions agreements.
Why it matters: New contracts can increase revenue. They also support Lockheed's production plans.
Supportive ifThere is news about new multi-year contracts for making munitions.
Worry ifNo new multi-year contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New contracts drive future revenue. Exceeding $35 billion indicates strong demand and growth potential.
Supportive ifNew defense contracts were announced. They total over $35 billion.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced or contracts below $35 billion.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing. Signs of growth could indicate a better environment for Lockheed Martin.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector is speeding up. It is now above 10% over 3 years.
Worry if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
Why it matters: The THAAD contract brings in a lot of money. Progress shows it is working well.
Supportive ifThere are public announcements about reaching goals in the THAAD contract.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the THAAD contract.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows strong profits and good cost control. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS reported at or above $7.35.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $7.35.
Why it matters: If they grow, it shows management believes in demand and operations. This is key for business health.
Supportive ifQ2 sales were at or above $19.0 billion. This shows 5% growth.
Worry ifQ2 sales were below $19.0 billion. This shows less than 5% growth.
Why it matters: Growth of 25% or more shows management's guidance and how well they operate.
Supportive ifQ3 segment operating profit growth reported at 25% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ3 segment operating profit growth is below 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Sales growth is a key indicator of demand and operational success. A drop below 8% could signal challenges.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth falls below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth meets or exceeds 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. Falling below $7 billion could raise concerns.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $7 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $7 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: New orders show how much money the company can make in the future. Orders under $65 billion may mean demand is getting weaker.
Worry ifNew orders reported below $65 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifNew orders reported at or above $65 billion in Q3.