Lincoln Financial (LNC)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.47-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
LNC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
CFO — Christopher Neczypor: The CFO is resigning to pursue another opportunity, but the departure is orderly with an interim successor appointed and no indication of disagreement or operational issues.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans will be key for Lincoln's money direction and stability.
Watch forA permanent CFO will be chosen by the end of 2026. This shows stability.
Also watch forNo permanent CFO is chosen by year-end. This shows possible leadership problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $0.45 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payout decreases below $0.45 per share.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in this segment shows strong demand. It also shows good management strategies.
Supportive ifRetirement Plan Services revenue grows more than 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRetirement Plan Services revenue declines or grows less than 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A fall in Group Protection income may show worse performance in this area. This affects total profit.
Worry ifGroup Protection income falls below $147 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifGroup Protection income goes above $160 million in Q3. This shows improvement.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,910 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High net outflows can hurt future earnings and growth. Monitoring this helps gauge business health.
Worry ifNet outflows in Annuities stay below $2 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet outflows in Annuities exceed $2 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may be a challenge for Lincoln Financial.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median, signaling a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still above its median. This shows ongoing expansion.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth helps Lincoln focus on increasing sales and profits.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year compared to $5.31 billion in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Going over this amount would show that earnings are growing and operations are efficient.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income is more than $400 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income is less than $350 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in income shows problems with making money. This can hurt future growth.
Worry ifOperating income is down compared to last quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income is up compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially healthy. This can help build trust with shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend payout that is the same or higher than last quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend payout. This shows there may be financial problems.
Why it matters: Slow growth in deposits may mean trouble in getting new customers. This can hurt total revenue.
Worry ifRetirement Plan Services deposits grow less than 2% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifRetirement Plan Services deposits grow 2% or more year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A significant drop in Annuities sales would indicate challenges in this key segment. This could impact overall revenue growth.
Worry ifAnnuities sales decline more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifAnnuities sales remain stable or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Life Insurance sales shows that management is doing a good job. This helps increase revenue in this area.
Supportive ifLife Insurance sales growth exceeds 50% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifLife Insurance sales growth is less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in liquidity may mean problems in managing money. This could limit growth.
Worry ifThe holding company's cash is below $800 million.
Less concerning ifThe holding company's cash is above $800 million.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may change financial strategy and improve operations.
Watch forAnnouncement of plans by the new CFO in three months.
Also watch forNo major announcements or changes from the new CFO.