Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.90-3.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.22 → 4.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities remains positive and strong | Cash from operations improved to $87 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Cash from operations turns negative in any quarter | Cash from operations: $31.186M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202631,186,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LOB is a regional financial company whose thesis depends on loan and deposit growth, operating discipline, and stable credit. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent earnings weakened the signal and management execution is volatile.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence rather than unusually optimistic or pessimistic. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, but confidence in the valuation model is not evidence that operating risks have eased.
Near term, recent results show strong revenue growth and much faster growth in pre-provision net revenue, while loan production and deposits also increased. However, LOB missed its most recent quarter, and the provision for credit losses rose sharply, partly because of a stressed distillery portfolio; the earnings record is therefore fragile despite strong reported growth.
The multi-year view depends on continued loan and deposit growth alongside expense discipline and better control of credit losses. Near term, another guidance cut or further credit pressure would weaken the case, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; the rate backdrop is also a swing factor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LOB has a credible growth foundation, but the recent miss and higher credit provisions put more weight on execution and credit quality. The thesis remains intact, with medium confidence and clear near-term risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share around $3.11 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.50 in 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.11 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stays near or above $40 million | Live Oak Bancshares keeps operating income stable near $40 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $36 million in any quarter | Operating income: $45.82M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202645,820,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.14 → $4.19 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.14 | $744,878,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.21 | $744,703,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.21 | $744,703,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.20 | $742,260,425 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.21 | $744,703,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.21 | $739,233,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.20 | $736,789,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.22 | $736,789,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.22 | $739,289,925 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.24 | $741,545,425 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.27 | $743,835,225 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.22 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.28 | $743,835,225 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.28 | $743,963,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.28 | $743,963,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.28 | $743,963,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.28 | $743,963,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.28 | $743,963,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.19 | $752,815,500 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.