Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Local Bounti Corp (LOCL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.90-4.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOCL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce operating losses | Cost cuts helped improve operating losses from -$18.2M to -$13.9M. | Broken | operating loss worsens beyond -$13.9M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-13.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves to better than -$13.9M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 12, 2026-13,948,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making turnaround with a sector tailwind, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on its priorities, but recent performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes LOCL as cheap versus peers, while the model’s expectations gap is negative and its confidence is medium. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but does not provide enough detail to say exactly what operating outcome the market assumes.
Near term, an elevated risk of an earnings miss reflects LOCL’s smaller size and recent peer misses; a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Over the multi-year view, adjusted EBITDA losses have narrowed, facility upgrades have increased capacity, and cost reductions have helped, though positive adjusted EBITDA has not yet been achieved.
The key favorable case is continued execution on costs and capacity, alongside strength from sector peers such as ADM, TSN, and BG. The unfavorable case is weaker guidance or a deteriorating jobs report that raises recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LOCL’s long-term thesis rests on sustained operating improvements closing the gap to positive adjusted EBITDA, while weak results and volatile management keep the risk high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted general and administrative expense1, which excludes stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization, and other non-core items decreased 17% to $4.1 million, as compared to $5.0 million in the prior year period.” “Across all facilities, the Company continues to make tangible progress on the cost side of the business, for example, more efficient seeding practices have lowered seed costs by approximately 20% year-over-year, and it expects to continue garnering cost savings across procurement, maintenance, labor efficiency, and freight management across the network.”
Ramp up facilities network | The company is expanding its facilities network to support growth. | Improving | facility ramp stalls or reverses in 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Tower upgrades were completed at its Georgia, Texas and Washington facilities during the fourth quarter of 2025, which resulted in enhanced production efficiency and an approximate 10% increase in run-rate yield capacity to reach the Company’s highest yields in the Company’s history and its yields remain at this improved run-rate capacity today.” “These selective investments are on track and are still expected to deliver as much as a 20% improvement to yields, while simultaneously improving facility operational efficiency and strengthening our position in the living butterhead lettuce market.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Reach positive adjusted EBITDA | Local Bounti aims to reach positive adjusted EBITDA in early 2026. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA remains negative past early 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue above 13% in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Local Bounti Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=13.34M USD revenue in 2026-Q1. | Improving | revenue falls below $13.3M in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $13.85M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13.34M USD revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 12, 202613,850,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.40 → $-1.40 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.40 | $117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.