Local Bounti Corp (LOCL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.12+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 85.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 111.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOCL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Local Bounti Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchan…
Why it matters: New partnerships can improve distribution and revenue. This helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifLook for news about a new partnership or growth in current partnerships.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or updates on discussions in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Metrics on facility ramp-up are crucial for understanding growth potential. They show how well the company is expanding.
Supportive ifManagement will share details on facility use or output in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo metrics are provided or metrics show stagnation in facility growth in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds 15%, it shows strong demand and better operations. This helps reach positive adjusted EBITDA.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: New partnerships can expand distribution and increase revenue. This supports growth goals.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new retail partnerships in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new retail partnerships announced in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$234 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $829 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,192 loss on $10,000 · 71.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth could signal a shift in the maturing sector. It may improve investor confidence in Local Bounti's future.
Supportive ifLocal Bounti's revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Expanding capacity is important to meet demand. It also supports revenue growth.
Watch forWatch for news about new facilities opening. Also, look for capacity growth in key markets.
Also watch forNo news on facility expansions or delays in planned projects.
Why it matters: A smaller adjusted EBITDA loss is key for making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss drops below $5.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains above $5.8 million or worsens in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A smaller adjusted EBITDA loss shows progress toward making money. This is a key goal.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the adjusted EBITDA loss is below $5.5 million.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA loss is still above $5.8 million.
Why it matters: A successful launch could drive growth in this product line and boost revenue.
Supportive ifPilot launch in 400 stores leads to sales growth exceeding 20% in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Worry ifSales growth for the Single Serve Salad Kit falls below 10% in the pilot region.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help with distribution and increase revenue. This supports management's goals.
Supportive ifNew retail partnerships will increase total retail doors to over 13,000.
Worry ifNo new retail partnerships announced, keeping total retail doors at 13,000.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins mean better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGross margin percentage will be over 30% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross margin percentage remains below 27%.