Lowe's (LOW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$204.45+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 64.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOW — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2025-10-09
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Obligation of a Registrant. As previously disclosed, on September 16, 2025, the Company entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “ Term Loan Credit Agreement ”) with certain lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A, as administrative agent, for a $2.0 billion unsecured term loan facility (the “ Term Loan Facility ”) that will mature on the third anniversary of the signing date thereof to finance…
Why it matters: Earnings below this level might show less profit and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 diluted earnings per share reported below $2.90.
Less concerning ifDiluted earnings per share remains at or above $2.90.
Why it matters: This shows Lowe's focus on growth and spending.
Supportive ifManagement plans to spend $2.5 billion in 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers spending plans to below $2.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Sales outlook shows Lowe's growth plan. A lower forecast may mean less demand.
Worry ifFull year 2026 sales outlook reported below $92 billion.
Less concerning ifFull year 2026 sales outlook reported above $92 billion.
Why it matters: This would show Lowe's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of about $12 billion.
Worry ifNo news on share buybacks or cuts to buyback plans.
Why it matters: If operating margin is below 11.2%, costs may be rising. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifThe operating margin is under 11.2%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is at or above 11.2%.
Why it matters: Progress on the Total Home strategy is crucial for driving growth in Pro, Online, and Home Services.
Supportive ifManagement says Pro, Online, and Home Services sales are up. They beat past growth.
Worry ifSales in Pro, Online, and Home Services stay the same or drop. This shows problems.
Why it matters: A cut below $92 billion shows lower demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement cuts the full-year sales forecast to less than $92 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises full-year sales guidance to $92 billion or more.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm Lowe's growth strategy is on track. It shows strong demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported between 7% and 9%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 7%.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows consumer demand. It can affect Lowe's sales outlook.
Watch forJune retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forJune retail sales report shows decline or flat growth.
Why it matters: Changes in the share buyback plan can affect value for shareholders.
Watch forThere was an announcement to increase the share buyback plan.
Also watch forThere was an announcement to reduce the share buyback plan.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending at $2.5 billion is important for growth.
Watch forManagement says capital spending is on track at about $2.5 billion.
Also watch forCapital spending drops below $2.5 billion. This may mean cuts in growth investments.
Why it matters: This report will show sales trends. It will also share what management thinks.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive growth in sales and earnings.
Also watch forEarnings report shows declining sales or earnings.
Why it matters: Changing the revenue growth target may show market conditions and what consumers want.
Watch forManagement raises the revenue growth target from 7% to 9%. This shows stronger demand.
Also watch forManagement has cut the revenue growth target to below 7%. This shows weaker market conditions.
Why it matters: Lower spending could mean less investment in growth and future work.
Worry ifSpending was below $2.5 billion.
Less concerning ifCAPEX reported at or above $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: Positive comparable sales growth shows that Lowe's can attract customers despite market pressures. This is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifComparable sales growth for Q3 is above 0.2%.
Worry ifComparable sales decline or remain flat year over year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,046 loss on $10,000 · 30.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.