Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
Lowe's (LOW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$227.24-0.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.99 → 12.96 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditures near $2.5 billion in fiscal year 2026 | The company keeps capital spending steady at $2.5 billion. | Intact | CAPEX rises above $3 billion or falls below $2 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LOW is a large home-improvement retailer with a multi-year thesis based on steady revenue growth and disciplined investment. The thesis is intact, but its recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence, with a modest premium versus peers and a slightly negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is justified, and no fragility warning is present.
Near term, recent financial performance has been strong, with earnings beats noted in May and August, while the miss risk is rated low. Management remains on track with its revenue-growth and capital-spending priorities, but margin delivery is mixed and the risk record includes recent misses and lowered guidance.
A reversal from the lowered guidance, supported by stronger guidance next quarter, would improve the near-term setup. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on management sustaining its growth and margin priorities. Results and guidance from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the broader sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LOW’s long-term thesis remains intact, but the mixed signal and recent guidance pressure make execution and sector trends important to watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lowe's's published investment case. The stated target is 11.2% to 11.4% operating margin. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 11.2% in FY26 |
Operating margin: 13.67% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 11.2% to 11.4% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 202613.673139 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in Lowe's's published investment case. The stated target is 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.43 → $12.96 · observed estimates
$96.03B → $94.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.43 | $96,026,965,069 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.42 | $95,970,331,736 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.10 | $94,769,195,998 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.05 | $94,577,394,329 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.03 | $94,548,575,158 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.03 | $94,548,575,158 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.03 | $94,548,575,158 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.03 | $94,558,059,029 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.03 | $94,558,059,029 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.03 | $94,558,059,029 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.03 | $94,558,059,029 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.98 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.98 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.98 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.98 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.98 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.99 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.99 | $94,383,944,639 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.97 | $94,383,928,621 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.97 | $94,383,928,621 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.97 | $94,383,928,621 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.99 | $94,474,103,496 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.99 | $94,474,103,496 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.98 | $94,447,379,358 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.98 | $94,447,379,358 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.98 | $94,447,372,462 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.98 | $94,447,382,852 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.98 | $94,447,382,852 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.99 | $94,435,240,724 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.99 | $94,427,247,390 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.99 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.97 | $94,427,258,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.96 | $94,402,858,687 | 21 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.